The Milwaukee Bucks have been dealt a sour hand of stretch-run luck. Suspended 25 games for an accidental drug violation, Bobby Portis had been sidelined since the All-Star Break before re-taking the court against Minnesota on Tuesday. Having missed several games with what was called a calf strain, Damian Lillard was suddenly declared out indefinitely with deep vein thrombosis, a type of blood clot, in that same right calf. The team hopes he can return for the playoffs, but a timeline remains murky.
The Bucks also lost backup center Jericho Sims, acquired from the Knicks to alleviate Portis’ absence. After receiving surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament in mid-March, Sims remains out. The trade deadline brought additional, not unsignificant upheaval to the roster when fan favorite Khris Middleton, a member of the team since Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the league, was shipped to Washington for Kyle Kuzma.
On top of that–or better said, underlying these extra challenges–Milwaukee’s post-break schedule was one of the toughest in the league. Despite all the obstacles, the Bucks have a chance to secure the 5-seed in the East on Thursday with a win at home and a Pistons loss.
Garbage Game for Some, Big Night for Milwaukee Bucks’ Playoff Security
One team that isn’t playing for anything is Milwaukee’s opponent, the New Orleans Pelicans. 14th in the West at 21-58, they suffered an inordinant number of injuries to key stars this season, in addition to trading away Brandon Ingram in February. Their projected lineup Thursday features players with more opening night DNPs (2) than starters (0).
For the Bucks (45-34), Giannis has been downgraded from probable to questionable with an illness. Milwaukee will enter the game two games up on Detroit (43-36), who tips off with New York at 7:00 PM ET. Three games back of Indiana in fourth, the main focus is on locking up the 5-spot to guarantee a first round rematch with the Pacers (48-31). Falling behind Detroit for the 6th seed, Milwaukee would most likely play New York (50-29). 2-2 against Indiana, the Bucks have gone 0-3 versus the Knicks this season.
Detroit Pistons Still Nipping at Bucks’ Heels
In order to avoid playing New York in the first round, the Bucks just have to split the home-and-home with the Pistons to conclude the schedule, giving them a 3-1 season series edge. If the teams remain separated by two games after tonight, taking games 81 and 82 would give the Pistons Milwaukee’s spot via the fourth tiebreaker (winning percentage in conference).
Or the Bucks could just take care of business now by beating the despondent Pelicans and hoping that New York does the job in Detroit.
As of this afternoon, the Pistons are 3.5-point favorites; Milwaukee is favored by 15.5. Even if Giannis doesn’t play–in fact it might be smarter to sit him–they will in all likelihood be double-digit overdogs. They play the games for a reason, but the Bucks should be able to manage without him.
Although Indiana is no slouch, the Knicks are obviously the more formidable team. Given the Dame situation, putting off a more difficult matchup is even more important. The Bucks need a full deck to beat one of the top teams in the East. Their regular season record against Cleveland (first place), Boston (second) and New York: 0-10. They’ll be up against it in any case, but giving Lillard a better chance to come back is their best shot.
Moreover, securing their playoff seeding would allow Doc Rivers to rest starters, particularly Giannis. (7th-place Orlando, 40-40, poses no threat lower down in the standings.)
Sure underdogs without Dame, if the Bucks upset the Pacers in round one they would likely face Cleveland in the conference semifinals–not to get ahead of things, of course. The first order of business is knocking off the Pels Thursday at 8 PM ET in the Fiserv Forum.
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