The Milwaukee Bucks’ matinee matchup with the Knicks topped Sunday’s slate, but in the second half the game devolved into a blowout,140-106 in favor of New York. Jalen Brunson torched the Bucks for 44 points in just 27 minutes on 16-26 shooting. The Knicks guard had it going from all areas of the floor, leaving defenders at the mercy of the rim’s caprice–if the shot hit anything but net.
With Brunson on a heater, the ball was either going in or it wasn’t and whoever got stuck guarding him, whether Damian Lillard, Andre Jackson or someone else, couldn’t do much about it.
Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 24 points and 14 rebounds but without his usual efficiency, going 10-21 from the field and 4-10 on free throws. It was his second consecutive game struggling at the line.
Lillard had 22, and, maybe the brightest part of a dismal day, Khris Middleton scored 16 on 7 of 9 shooting off the bench.
Milwaukee fell to 20-17 with the loss, but more concerningly, they are now 0-8 against the top three seeds in the East–Cleveland (33-4), Boston (27-11), and New York (26-14). What is this team missing?
Are the Bucks Legit Contenders in Eastern Conference?
Neither Giannis or Lillard had a great game, but both Bucks stars are having stellar campaigns. The Greek Freak is crafting another MVP-caliber statline with 31.4/11.9/6.0. Lillard is doing what the Bucks brought him here to do, averaging 24.8 PTS and 7.3 AST.
What Milwaukee’s star duo doesn’t have is a next-level supporting cast. For New York, that means having Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart alongside Brunson and center Karl Anthony-Towns (30 points and 18 REB today). Most NBA fans would call Giannis the best player on the court today, but the Knicks’ depth is hard enough to beat when Brunson and Towns aren’t balling out.
In Boston, Tatum and Brown are equipped with Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and a blossoming Payton Prichard.
Simply looking at Cleveland’s roster, you wouldn’t peg them for the best record in the NBA. Not that a lineup of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Caris Levert is anything but enviable, but just comparing rosters, the Bucks and the Cavs seem to be similarly built. Two stars, two excellent bigs, and a productive bench scorer: Giannis, Dame, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Middleton.
The talent, of course, is obviously distributed differently on the two teams. The Bucks are more top heavy, led by an MVP candidate but without a third option like Mobley has become for Cleveland, or Cleveland’s chemistry.
Injuries Have Hindered Milwaukee Bucks But Depth Is Bigger Issue
It is a valid point to note that the Bucks have been impacted more by injuries. Cleveland has experienced remarkable health this season, with their four top guys missing a combined 5 games–a truly incredible feat in this day and age. New York’s top five players have missed only 10. Tatum and Brown have missed 12 for Boston, though, and Porzingis did not play a game until November 29, causing him to miss a total of 23.
For the Bucks, Giannis and Lillard have 15 absences between them. Certainly the Cavs and Knicks have it best out of the bunch, but what really leaves Milwaukee vulnerable is their lack of depth when missing one or both of their stars. For any top-heavy roster, you would expect this to be the case.
Advanced Metrics Shed Light on Where Milwaukee Stands
Another telling indication that the Bucks are simply not equipped to take down the best in the league is their ranking in a simple advanced metric like net rating. Throw out today against a really good offense, but they have been defending better of late and sit 11th in defensive rating. In offensive rating, they are 15th, giving them a net score good for 13th overall.
Where are the Cavs, Celtics, and Knicks? 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Oklahoma City, 31-6 and 1st in the West, is number one. (Yes, the Bucks beat the Thunder, touch on it later.) Offensively, in the order above, Milwaukee’s competitors rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. In defensive rating, Boston is 6th, Cleveland 10th, and New York 15th.
What this suggests is that Milwaukee’s main concern should be addressing any offensive issues they have while continuing to improve on defense.
Moving Middleton to the bench, reducing his workload to let him progress from offseason ankle surgery, is one way to try and change things up. Is it enough? No one is waiting in the wings, working back from injury, to bolster the roster. Will Middleton get better throughout the season? How much better? Will he get hurt again? This is what they are. Unless something changes, something big, it’s not a next level roster as constructed.
Will Giannis Ride into Bucks Sunset With Single Ring?
This isn’t a discussion of trade scenarios–anyone interested can take a peek here or here–but, not to be coy, a commercialistic approach to the deadline may be the most realistic, and maybe the only way to contend with the beasts in the East. The Bucks don’t need to be Boston or New York. They have Giannis. What they need is to give him more support than what he has now: a legitimate third option as well as an upgrade over current starters Andre Jackson or Taurean Prince.
As productive but declining pieces, with the necessary salary and only one or two years left on their contracts (which appeals to cellar-dwellers just looking to bring in picks and clear their books), Middleton and Lopez are the obvious outgoing candidates.
It’s not that they don’t offer valuable contributions. It’s that this version of the team will have a hard time going far, beyond, say, a first round win over the Orlando Magic. Winning in the playoffs means winning series, not individual games as in the in-season tournament.
One game isn’t cause for overreaction. The Bucks have played tight games with the East elite, if not against New York (lost 116-94 last time they met). Milwaukee also just won three straight, two of them against decent teams in the Spurs (18-19) and the Magic (22-18). And let’s not forget that they shut down OKC in the NBA Cup championship.
Then again, that was only one game, too.
As it is, a win against Houston (25-12) and two against Orlando are the best the Bucks can claim in contests that count toward the regular season. Those aren’t bad wins at all, and anyway this isn’t college; opponent quality and subjective ranking have no bearing on the standings.
That part about the “regular season”–that could be key, too. Maybe they can just flip a switch in the biggest games and let Giannis take over. It’s not impossible. But it would be nice to see some confidence-inducing sign against in-conference foes.
Milwaukee’s struggles en route to that 0-8 record have not entailed just one game. Close losses they suffered to Cleveland early on (114-113, 116-14) are L’s all the same; closing out a tight one is just as crucial as building a secure lead.
For now, the Bucks have shown themselves to be a decent team against decent competition, but a consistent fade–at least in the East–against the upper tier. Riding out the season is one option, the secure one. It’s less likely to blow up in GM Jon Horst’s face. And, considering the team’s body of work so far, likely won’t bring another title to Milwaukee.
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