Preseason win totals are out and bookmakers have pegged the Milwaukee Brewers with a consensus over-under of 83.5. The Chicago Cubs top the NL Central market at 84.5, with the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all penciled in at 77.5.
Here is how the division shook out last season:
- Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
- Chicago Cubs (83-79)
- St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
- Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86).
At ESPN Bet, Chicago is projected to finish 4 wins ahead of Milwaukee, 86.5 to 82.5.
Should Brewers fans feel slighted?
Market Favors Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers
In addition to projecting a 10-win decline in record, sportsbooks give the Brewers just +273 consensus odds to take the division, compared to -102 for the Cubs.
Add up each NL Central member’s implied odds, divide the Brewers’ into the total, and you get a 23.6% market probability that Milwaukee repeats as division champs.
By contrast, Chicago eats up a 44.5% share. The Reds come in at 14.7%, the Pirates at 9.2% and the Cardinals at 8.0%.
The market does, however, give Milwaukee a decent chance to make the playoffs overall: +105 for yes, -125 for no, yielding a probability of 46.6% after averaging the “yes” and “no” percentage odds.
According to handicappers, then, they have about the same chance of winning the division as they do to get in as a wild card.
As far as their competitive ceiling, books do not give the Brewers the benefit of the doubt. At +5455, the Brewers have the 20th highest World Series odds, listed behind the likes of the Detroit Tigers; Chicago is 11th. They rank 8th in chance to win the NL pennant, behind the Cubs (6th) and Jesse Winker’s Mets (3rd).
Contrast this to their 10th-place appraisal in MLB.com’s power rankings, versus the Cubs’ 13th. Which prediction of Milwaukee’s prospects will prove nearer the truth?
Certainly a few things have changed in the NL Central. Milwaukee lost several pieces in free agency, led by shortstop Willy Adames. He paced the team with 32 HR and 112 RBI and amassed a 3.1 WAR at a key position. The Giants signed him early in the offseason for 7 years and $182 million. Six days, later the division rival Cubs made a big addition of their own.
Brewers’ Strong Roster Gives Them a Chance To Overachieve Again
In a December trade, Chicago exchanged third baseman Isaac Paredes for Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker (.289/.408/.585, 4.7 WAR in 78 games in 2024), a definite upgrade to the roster despite Paredes’ production. They also signed pitcher Colin Rea away from these very Brewers, gaining a decent backend starter.
Rea’s old team, however, replaced him–improved upon him–by adding Yankees arm Nestor Cortes in a trade sending out reliever Devin Williams. Losing Williams hurts, but Cortes should be a valuable number three starter behind Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Milwaukee also re-signed closer Trevor Megill, so it is not as if Williams’ absence leaves the bullpen bare.
Jackson Chourio should only improve on his stellar rookie campaign. A projected member of the starting lineup, center fielder Garrett Mitchell has a chance to build on excellent production in 196 at bats last season, and Christian Yelich should be ready to go for spring training after season-ending back surgery in 2024.
In the rotation, Peralta is a dark horse Cy Young Candidate, drawing the 15th shortest odds for the award, 10 places behind Baltimore’s ex-Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes. Both are tied at +3500 to lead MLB in strikeouts. Peralta whiffed 200 batters last season.
There is plenty to look forward to in Brewtown. Before the 2024 season, their win total sat at 77.5, below both the Cubs and Reds. Milwaukee outpaced that mark by 15.5 victories. Their second consecutive NL Central crown was already a franchise-first since divisions were realigned to three per league in 1994.
If they want the threepeat, they will have to outdo expectations once again.
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