Many have the Milwaukee Brewers predicted to have some difficulties after they traded 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles ahead of the 2024 season, many MLB analysts expected their starting pitching to take a step backwards. Two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff was also ruled out for the entire 2024 season due to a shoulder injury that limited him in 2023.
Additionally, the manager with the most wins in franchise history, Craig Counsell, left the Brewers for the Chicago Cubs. In his place, Milwaukee hired Pat Murphy, who had served as Counsell’s bench coach.
With these losses, many have the Milwaukee Brewers predicted to finish third or worse in the National League Central Division. However, they went on to win 93 games and won their second consecutive division crown.
Milwaukee Brewers lost two key players this offseason
This past offseason, Milwaukee has also lost two of its best players. Shortstop Willy Adames, fresh off of hitting .251/.331/.462 with 32 home runs, 112 RBI and 21 stolen bases, signed a seven-year $182m contract with the San Francisco Giants.
Always a cost-conscious organization, Milwaukee will look to replace him with one of their young stars instead of signing a free agent. Current candidates are second baseman Brice Turang, a Gold Glove and Platinum Glove winner, and Joey Ortiz, who played third base last season.
In addition to losing Adames in free agency, the Brewers traded two-time All-Star closer Devin Williams to the New York Yankees for starting pitcher Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. He will likely be replaced by Trevor Megill, who filled in as closer when Williams missed most of last season with stress fractures in his back.
Once again, it would appear that the departure of two key figures on the team has affected the way experts and oddsmakers view the Brewers and their ability to contend in 2025.
Oddsmakers have Milwaukee Brewers predicted to step back in 2025
Even when Counsell was the manager of the Brewers, MLB experts rarely, if ever, predicted them to do well in any given year. Many bettors were bearish when it came to betting on the 2024 Brewers, as they were in the years prior. Some have taken advantage of free bets they have found on affiliate sites like AskGamblers UK when finding some value opportunities in the betting market. The same appears to be true this season as well and this is despite the fact that Murphy’s crew won 93 games in his first season. He also won the franchise’s first Manager of the Year award!
PECOTA projects the Brewers to have an over/under of just 80.5 wins this season, which means that they believe Milwaukee will be right around .500 all year. This would have been a fourth-place finish in the NL Central last year.
However, Clutchpoints provides a more favorable prediction with an estimate that the Brewers will win around 85-86 games in 2025.
In a recent article, ESPN urged fans to bet the under on 82.5 wins citing that they believe Milwaukee overachieved last season.
In other words, the experts do not expect the Brewers to be competitive again in 2025, which on the surface may be discouraging. However, they have been wrong about the Brewers every year since 2018.
If Milwaukee’s 2024 season taught us anything, it is to never bet against them.
Key departures for the Milwaukee Brewers during the offseason
- Devin Williams (Yankees)
- Willy Adames (Giants)
- Colin Rea (Cubs)
- Frankie Montas (Mets)
Key additions for the Milwaukee Brewers during the offseason
- Nestor Cortes
Under-the-radar players that could play a big role for the Milwaukee Brewers
Caleb Durbin
The reason the Brewers traded Williams to the Yankees was not for Cortes, though they did need starting pitching depth. While adding Cortes was definitely a benefit, the player Milwaukee most coveted was Durbin. The Brewers believe he can compete to be their everyday third baseman as Ortiz moves over to shortstop.
During the most recent Arizona Fall League season, Durbin set the league record with 29 stolen bases. They play a 22-game season.
Grant Wolfram
Despite having never appeared in a Major League game yet in his professional career, Grant Wolfram signed a contract with the Brewers this offseason. The left-handed reliever, who was a part of the Texas Rangers organization, was 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 46 appearances between Double-A and Triple-A leagues last season.
Connor Thomas
The Brewers swiped left-handed pitcher Connor Thomas from their rival St. Louis Cardinals during the Rule Five Draft. This means that Thomas must be on Milwaukee’s Major League roster for the entire season if the Brewers want to keep him. Should they want to option him to the minors, he could then choose to return to the Cardinals.
Last season, Thomas was 7-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 56 appearances for St. Louis’ Triple-A affiliate.
Conclusion
The Milwaukee Brewers predicted outcome looks to be a tough sell for fans and bettors in the 2025 MLB season. While there are some pieces to work with, the team may take a step back as some are predicting. With the loss of Willy Adames and Devin Williams, there is work to do to add some stability back to some very key positions. Of course, there are outliers that could reverse the trend, not least of which are some younger players who could have a significant part to play by season’s end.
Main photo credit:
© Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
