This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Milwaukee Brewers and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize your profit. While not every investment will be in the Brew Crew’s favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the National League East and MLB in general as we focus on the selections that have the strongest Return On Investment (ROI). Let Wisconsin Sports Heroics be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.
With the baseball season almost two weeks old, it’s Milwaukee that finds itself atop the NL Central, which isn’t all that surprising as they were expected to contend for the division crown. What is surprising is St. Louis Cardinals, the pre-season favorite to actually win the NL Central, are in the cellar and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in second. However, as I’ve said before, the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint and in the remaining 152 games, almost anything can, and probably will, happen.
Recap of Milwaukee Brewer’s Monday night loss
Milwaukee traveled to Arizona for a three-game set at the start of a 10-game road trip. Arizona came into this series playing well, taking three of four from the Dodgers over the weekend. They picked up right where they left off, shutting out Milwaukee 3-0 in the first game of the series. RHP Zac Gallen (0-1 7.59 ERA) took the mound for the Diamondbacks as the Brewers sent LHP Wade Miley (1-0 0.00 ERA) on the bump.
The Diamondback’s ace had struggled in his first two outings, with a WHIP of 1.60 in the 10.2 IP he had thrown. He got things turned around in a big way, going seven strong innings, allowing only three hits and one walk, while punching out 11 Brewers batters. As a team, Milwaukee struck out 15 times, with Yelich and Wiemer both logging three K’s a piece.
Of course, Gallen had the help of a “moving” strike zone. I think more than any other sport the umpires in baseball have the ability to influence a game and last night’s affair was a perfect example of that. Of course, with the level of technology that exists today, your inaccuracies will be duly noted. George Orwell wrote “1984” in which “Big Brother” observed and noted everything you did. Umpires need to take heed to this, as “Big Brother” is now watching their work.
Miley surrendered his first runs of the season, giving up three earned over five innings, walking three and striking out three. He served up a two-run homer to Arizona’s Christian Walker.
Tuesday’s First Pitch is at 8:40 PM
The Brewers ace, RHP Corbin Burnes (0-1 9.64) squares off against the D-Backs RHP Merrill Kelly (0-1 3.86). The early line for these two probable starters is Milwaukee -135 Arizona +115 and the total runs at 8.5.
A notoriously slow starter ( a career 3-5 record, 4.50 ERA, and 17 home runs allowed in the 15 games in March and April), the beginning of his 2023 season is poor, even for Burnes’s standard. Corbin’s 1.71 WHIP is considerably higher than the NL average of 1.38.
The good news for Milwaukee fans is that the D-back’s Kelly has an even higher WHIP of 1.82. His fairly impressive 3.86 ERA is built on a very shaky foundation that a couple of well-timed hits will completely obliterate.
Offensively speaking, Arizona’s team batting average is .269, which is good enough for 5th place in the NL. They have hit nine home runs and have 50 RBIs, with a slugging percentage of .429 and an OPS of .747. They lead the National League in doubles with 26.
When the MLB increased the physical size of the base from 15 to 18 square inches, many pundits predicted an increase of stolen bases. The D-Backs have taken advantage of this increase to lead the NL with 17 stolen bases and only one caught attempt.
As expected, the Brewers’ poor Monday night performance dropped them in a multitude of offensive league categories. Their 12 home runs are still good enough for 5th place and the 48 RBIs they’ve accrued is right behind Arizona’s mark. Milwaukee has a .413 slugging percentage, 10th out of 15 NL teams, but their OPS is .761, placing them 6th in the NL.
Your Milwaukee Brewers investments to make
While Arizona has been a bit better than anticipated and they’ve beaten some good teams, the Brewers have a clear advantage in starting pitching tonight. Even though he’s had a couple of shaky outings, Burnes is an annual Cy Young candidate versus a decent, but not great, pitcher in Kelly.
As betting markets are just like any other financial institution and subject to public perception, Burnes’s perceived value has diminished in the eyes of the common bettor. These are the types of situations that can be taken advantage of by the savvy investor and exploited.
In a computer model that I use extensively, simulating these two opponents 100,000 times yields an average score of 9.2 runs per game. With the over currently sitting at 8.5, this is a tremendous value.
I am recommending a 4-unit play on over 8.5 runs and a 1-unit play on Milwaukee -135
I expect the Brewers to score a plethora of runs and right the ship.
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