This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Milwaukee Brewers and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize your profit. While not every investment will be in the Brew Crew’s favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the National League East and MLB in general as we focus on the selections that have the strongest Return On Investment (ROI). Let Wisconsin Sports Heroics be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.
A bad day for everyone involved
The only thing that looked worse than my picks yesterday was the Milwaukee Brewers themselves. It started out great, as the Brew Crew jumped out to an early 2-0 lead. Peralta had easily his worst outing of the year, giving up a 2-run shot to Jake Croneworth, along with eight other hits. Only lasting five innings, he also failed to cash our strikeout prop bet of over 5.5 Ks, finishing with five on the button.
The “hook”, or half of any spread or total bet, is designed by the oddsmakers to guarantee a winner and a loser, as a pitcher obviously can’t get half of a strikeout. It can be your best friend or, in our case for the past two days, our worst enemy.
Most professional gamblers make the bulk of their money during the baseball season because it is a game where the importance of statistical analysis is elevated with the large volume of games played.
However, it’s this large volume that makes baseball gambling a true test of nerves and reliance upon your strategies because anything can, and will, happen. Jake Croneworth had played 379 games and never had a multi-home run game, until yesterday.
In the words of Christopher Cooper’s character in “The Patriot”, we must “Stay the course”.
Milwaukee Brewer’s first pitch is at 3:10 CT
San Diego’s Yu Darvish has had a bit of a bumpy start statically, with an ERA (4.76) that is over a point higher than his career (3.69). Some might think that father time has finally caught up with the 36-year-old lefty. The current odds are Milwaukee +150 and San Diego -170 with an over-under of 8.0.
However, let’s delve into some advanced analytics to see what might be happening.
| Batting Against | Pitching Ratios | Batted Ball | Win Probability | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | IP | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip | HR% | SO% | BB% | EV | HardH% | LD% | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | WPA | cWPA | RE24 |
| 2017 | 30 | TOT | MLB | 186.2 | .228 | .292 | .397 | .689 | .284 | 3.5% | 27.3% | 7.6% | 86.2 | 34.1% | 25.6% | 41.2% | 24.1% | 0.72 | 1.2 | 0.7% | 16.1 |
| 2017 | 30 | TEX | AL | 137.0 | .225 | .293 | .396 | .689 | .275 | 3.6% | 26.2% | 8.0% | 86.3 | 34.6% | 26.5% | 40.7% | 23.5% | 0.70 | 1.3 | 0.7% | 13.4 |
| 2017 | 30 | LAD | NL | 49.2 | .235 | .289 | .401 | .690 | .311 | 3.5% | 30.2% | 6.4% | 86.0 | 32.5% | 22.8% | 42.5% | 26.0% | 0.78 | -0.1 | 0.0% | 2.7 |
| 2018 | 31 | CHC | NL | 40.0 | .235 | .341 | .425 | .766 | .296 | 3.9% | 27.2% | 11.7% | 88.0 | 35.8% | 21.7% | 36.8% | 27.4% | 0.63 | -0.6 | -0.3% | -5.5 |
| 2019 | 32 | CHC | NL | 178.2 | .213 | .284 | .411 | .695 | .268 | 4.5% | 31.3% | 7.7% | 89.0 | 40.8% | 23.9% | 45.1% | 23.9% | 0.83 | 0.4 | 0.9% | 14.2 |
| 2020 | 33 | CHC | NL | 76.0 | .211 | .253 | .321 | .575 | .297 | 1.7% | 31.3% | 4.7% | 88.0 | 34.4% | 32.1% | 42.8% | 15.5% | 0.76 | 2.4 | 1.2% | 23.9 |
| 2021 | 34 | SDP | NL | 166.1 | .222 | .279 | .429 | .708 | .274 | 4.1% | 29.2% | 6.5% | 87.5 | 35.0% | 22.8% | 36.5% | 30.9% | 0.59 | 0.3 | 0.4% | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 35 | SDP | NL | 194.2 | .207 | .256 | .331 | .587 | .251 | 2.9% | 25.6% | 4.8% | 88.1 | 37.3% | 21.9% | 37.7% | 31.0% | 0.61 | 3.7 | 2.2% | 29.6 |
| 2023 | 36 | SDP | NL | 11.1 | .237 | .354 | .316 | .670 | .281 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 10.4% | 85.9 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 40.6% | 25.0% | 0.72 | 0.1 | 0.1% | 0.7 |
| 11 Yrs | 1499.1 | .217 | .286 | .370 | .657 | .282 | 3.0% | 29.2% | 7.9% | 87.6 | 36.3% | 24.0% | 40.7% | 26.0% | 0.70 | 14.3 | 9.4% | 143.0 | |||
| MLB Averages | .251 | .318 | .409 | .727 | .297 | 3.0% | 21.5% | 8.2% | 88.4 | 38.7% | 24.2% | 43.8% | 23.3% | 0.80 | |||||||
The numbers in bold print show some of Darvish’s advanced pitching stats. The two that I’m really focusing on is the 85.9 in EV (Exit Velocity) and 31.3% in Hard Hit %. If Yu was truly losing his stuff, the balls would have been hit harder, yet these numbers are career lows for him. What has plagued Yu this season is the walks he has issued.
Looking at the Milwaukee Brewers Miley, on the surface it looks like a solid start to the 36-year-old’s season, with his 1-1 record and stout 2.45 ERA.
What worries me is he only pitched 37 innings last season with the Chicago Cubs in only nine starts. Injuries have always plagued him and until I see a few more solid outings, I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic.
However, that optimism doesn’t mean that I will not bet against him.
Milwaukee Brewers’ wagers and seasonal betting totals
As much as I want to take the Brew Crew, when money is on the line I attempt to be as non-emotional as possible. I think that Darvish’s numbers so far this year are outliers to his whole career and believe as the season goes on, they will come back to his normal levels.
I also like the under as well. With the stats that I discussed earlier, I think that Darvish should have a solid start, giving up two runs or less. While Miley may get chased early, I think the Brewers’ bullpen will have a bounce-back performance.
I am recommending two units on the Padres (-175) and two units on the under 8.0.
Season Stats:
Over/Under: 0-2
Moneyline: 1-0
Prop Bets: 0-1
Total: 1-3 (-7 units)
On a note totally unrelated to betting, I’d just like to wish a speedy recovery to rookie Gus Varland, who was struck by a 105 mph line drive. He was taken to the hospital but the X-rays were negative and he said he felt O.K.
Helluva way to be introduced to the big leagues.
For More Great Wisconsin Sports Content
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeyHouse14 and follow us @WiSportsHeroics for more great content. To read more of our articles and keep up to date on the latest in Wisconsin sports, click here!
