This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Milwaukee Brewers and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize your profit. While not every investment will be in the Brew Crew’s favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the National League East and MLB in general as we focus on the selections that have the strongest Return On Investment (ROI). Let Wisconsin Sports Heroics be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.
Recap of wager and Milwaukee Brewers first two wins against San Diego
We had a 4-unit play on the over of 8.5 runs and a 1-unit play on Milwaukee in Tuesday’s matchup against Arizona. While the Brewers certainly held up their end of the bargain (albeit a little late), both of the pitching staffs did much better than I had anticipated. Losing any wager by a half a point (also known as “the hook”) is brutal. Having it be the first 4-unit wager of the year? Priceless!
However, we got a little of it back as Milwaukee was most certainly the most dominant of the two teams. We will look to solider on and get out of this little hole that has been dug.
After the series with the D-Backs, the Brewers continued their West Coast swing, heading into San Diego to take on the Padres. The first game started off with a Rowdy Tellez 2-run blast and the investors who had the over were probably licking their chops when the Padres answered with a run in their half of first inning.
Alas, that was not the case to be as it quickly turned into a pitcher’s duel. San Diego’s Trent Grisham hit a 2-run blast in the 8th, tying it at three. In the first frame of extra innings, Tellez hit a sac fly to bring in Christian Yellich for the winning run.
Last night wasn’t close at all, as the Brew Crew romped 11-2. Tellez went deep twice to right field and Yelich connected for his 2nd dinger as well. Milwaukee had 15 hits and starter Eric Lauer pitched six strong innings, surrending one run on five hits. It marked the second consecutive game that a former Padres pitcher bested them.
Saturday’s first pitch is at 3:05 PM CT
Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers with a 2-0 record and a sterling 0.75 ERA. RHP Seth Lugo takes the bump for the Padres, also sporting a 2-0 mark with a pedistrian 1.38 ERA (that’s a joke people, 1.38 is fantastic). The current line sees the Brewers at +120 and the Padres at -130 with a total set at 8 runs.
There are a couple of intriguing wagers I’ve noticed. The under of 8.0 looks solid. Using a computer model I’ve established, I ran this simulation 10,000 and the total of both teams was 7.8 runs.
The under in any sport difficult because freak things can happen at any given time. Baseball’s under is vastly different, because it’s not a timed sport but the games duration is based on innings. You’re truly not cashing your ticket until the final out is recorded.
Having said that, both pitchers are performing very well and the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has been very impressive. I see this game ending somewhere in the vicinity of 4-3 or 3-2.
The other bet that I’m taking a strong look at is the prop bet on Freddy Peralta’s strikeouts. It is currently sitting at 5.5 strikeouts for the game. Freddy’s currently averaging 10.5 K/9 this season, which is slightly down from his 11.7 K/9 career mark. He’s averaged six innings over his two starts this campaign and will continue to pitch longer as the season continues.
I’m recommending investing 2 units on the under and 2 units of Freddy’s strikeout prop.
Season Stats:
Over/Under: 0-1
Moneyline: 1-0
Total: 1-1 (-3 units)
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