The Detroit Lions kept their playoff hopes alive with a 44-30 victory over the Cowboys on Thursday night, improving 8-5 on the season and keeping the heat on both the Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) and Chicago Bears (9-3) this weekend. With the Lions’ win, whoever loses will have Detroit breathing down their neck for a playoff spot entering the home stretch of schedule.
Thursday outcome lends ever greater importance to Packers-Bears on Sunday
Failing to pull off their own victory over Dallas has the Packers in far less favorable position than they would be otherwise. There is, of course, the advantage of a win versus a tie in terms of record, but it also renders Green Bay’s season sweep of the Lions largely irrelevant as a potential tiebreaker in the standings.
The Packers host the Bears favored by 6.5-points, but if, like the Eagles last week, they find a way to blow a home game as sizable favorites, the Lions will be half a game behind them without having to worry about an 0-2 head-to-head record. Unless another tie happens, it won’t matter – just the number of wins.
If the Bears lose, at 9-4 they will face a similar scenario leading up to their Week 18 game against the Lions. Because Detroit beat them earlier this season, a 52-21 blowout at Ford Field, if both teams simply kept pace until then, the Bears would be looking at a must-win situation to finish ahead of the Lions in the standings. Coming into the season finale up one game on Detroit, then losing in Week 18, Chicago would have the same record but finish behind the Lions due to dropping both head-to-head matchups.
As things stand now, the Packers still have firm control of their own destiny. ESPN’s FPI projections give them an 89% chance of making the postseason and a 56% shot at the division. The Bears sit at a 32% probability of taking the NFC North. The Lions linger at 11.5%.
Whoever triumphs at Lambeau this Sunday will be in the driver’s seat – for now, with a Week 16 rematch looming – with the loser dropped into a closely contested Wild Card field battling both the Lions (currently the 8th-seed) and San Francisco 49ers (currently 7th) for the final spot.
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