The Green Bay Packers and many of their fans seem to believe that things will go well this coming season. However, outside of that corp of true believers, there’s not a lot of optimism when it comes to how well the team will do over the long haul of the season.
As a matter of fact, some– with the backing of complex analytics and new age formulaic methods– have come to the conclusion the Packers will be downright awful.
ESPN’s Football Power Index [FPI] is a tool that calculates how well each team will do in the upcoming campaign. Per ESPN:
“[The FPI rankings] are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.”
In its most recent projections, the Packers’ chances of doing anything this year are bleak.
According to the FPI, Green Bay only has a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs this season. This makes them the least likely team to make the postseason of all the NFC North. For perspective, the Detroit Lions have a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs, the Minnesota Vikings have a 51.8% chance, and the Packers long-time rivals, the Chicago Bears, are calculated to have a 34.2% shot at the playoffs.
When it comes to winning the NFC North outright, the Packers are once again at the bottom of the pack with a 12.2% chance of topping the division. By the FPI’s calculations, the Detroit Lions are most likely to take the division, with a 43.1% chance of doing so. Behind the Lions are the Minnesota Vikings with a 28.7% probability and the Chicago Bears with a 15.9% chance.
And, just for the sake of mentioning it, the FPI calculates the Packers’ chance of making the Super Bowl at 1.6% while it gives them a .5% chance of actually winning the Super Bowl.
I know, this is a lot of fantasy data that, in the long run, doesn’t mean a whole lot until the players actually hit the field. But there is some solid logic behind these calculations.
The Packers will be playing this season with a new starting quarterback in Jordan Love, who has only started one game and made 83 pass attempts in his short time in the NFL. Love’s receiver and tight end crew is mostly comprised of rookies and players with limited league experience.
On the other side of things, though, the team’s running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is elite-level. There are also pockets of strength on the team’s defense and offensive line.
Plus, it should be noted that inexperience doesn’t necessarily make for failure.
So, while the analytics people and the oddsmakers foreshadow doom and gloom for the Green Bay Packers, not a single battle has been waged thus far and the world has yet to see what Jordan Love can do as the leader of the offense.