Week two is upon us, and I have some more predictions and projections lined up for you to help dominate your fantasy league this weekend, as well as some thoughts on animpressive showing in Minnesota last week.
As always, you can get your stat fix for all things Packers and Fantasy all season long with my other analytics. Now, with that out of the way, let’s take a look forward at Green Bay’s Week two match up.
Detroit is a Tantalizing Matchup
This week’s match up is looking juicy. Detroit is a five-star matchup for Fantasy. Only Miami and Arizona ranked as better defensive fantasy match ups last year.
Moreover, week one proved that Detroit has not done much to improve on its 2019 campaign. Against the less-than-dynamic Chicago Bears offense, Detroit surrendered 297 passing yards to Mitchell Trubisky and an unimpressive 138 rushing yards to the Bears’ running game.
Now, I realize that Green Bay appeared sub-par offensively last year against the Lions, but just like the Vikings, Detroit has a banged-up, young, and inexperienced secondary. There’s no reason to over-complicate this, the Packers should feast on Sunday.
Now let’s take a look at our fantasy predictions and projections for each position group.
Fantasy Projection: Quarterbacks
|Player||Pass TDs||Rush TDs||INTs||Fumbles Lost||Pass Yds||Rush Yds||2 Pt Conversion||Fantasy Point Projection|
Whatever Aaron Rodgers discovered in his offseason film sessions already appears to be paying dividends, to the point even our Week One projections were understated.
That being said, I chalk up some of the production to Minnesota starting a couple of rookie corners, but those guys are still NFL DBs. Plus, Detroit’s secondary is not much better, and they arguably have a worse pass rush.
Last week, Mitch Trubisky “torched” Detroit for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Look for the Rodgers train to do more of the same this week, especially against a defense that only sacked Trubisky once.
I’m projecting a similar stat-line that we saw last week.
Fantasy Projection: Running Backs
|Player||Rush/Rec TDs||Rush/Rec Yds||Receptions||Fumbles Lost||2 Pt Conversion||Fantasy Point Projection|
I was both pleasantly surprised and somewhat disappointed by Green Bay’s rushing attack on Sunday. I was thrilled to see how dynamic they were at running the ball.
On one play, you would have AJ Dillon pounding the ball up the middle and running over Minnesota’s linebackers. On the next play you would have Tyler Ervin darting around the edge and breaking a run up the field for a big gain. They hit Minnesota with a mix of speed, power, and finesse.
At the same time though, Aaron Jones was pretty mostly held in check. He was sub 100 yards rushing and was a secondary, check-down option in the passing game. Now, he still ended the day with 15.6 points, but if it were not for that second-half touchdown run, he would have ended the day with less than 10 fantasy points.
Let me be clear, this is a good thing for Green Bay in totality. This makes for a selfless, dynamic, and diversified offense than can hit you from a bunch of different angles. However, I find myself dampening my expectations for Aaron Jones for the overall 2020 campaign.
Jamaal Williams will be solid as usual, but he is a flex option at best.
Fantasy Projection: Receivers
|Position||Player||Rsh/Rec TDs||Rsh/Rec Yds||Receptions||Fumbles Lost||2 Pt Conversion||Point Projection|
|WR||Equanimeous St. Brown||–||–||–||–||–||–|
What a difference an offseason can make, huh?
A couple of months ago, Colin Cowherd and Skip Bayless were ripping on Green Bay for not addressing their receiving corps in the draft. On Sunday, the receivers shut up all the doubters…at least temporarily.
Now, one game is promising, this performance has to be sustained, but it’s reasonable to be bullish on Green Bay’s receiver corps with Lazard and MVS about two weeks away from being in legitimate WR2 territory. I think that New Orleans game is going to be a huge test.
The Tight End group had possibly the easiest, most predictable performance of week one. There isn’t a game-breaker at the position, and all of Green Bay’s vertical threats are concentrated in their Wide Receivers. I love how the Deguara kid looks, and I would not be surprised to see them incorporate him into the screen game a little bit over the course of the season. Do yourself a favor though, keep these guys out of your lineup.
Fantasy Projection: Defense and Special Teams
Defense Fantasy Projection: 8.0 Pts
- 14-20 Points Allowed: 1.0 pts
- Three Sacks: 3.0 pts
- Two Interceptions: 4.0 pts
Fantasy Projection: 17.0 Pts
- One FG 0-39 Yds (3.0 pts), One FG 40-49 Yds: (4.0 pts), One FG 50+ Yds (5.0 pts)
- Five Extra Points (5.0 pts)
I’m going to be honest; this defense has me nervous. I am hoping that they got cocky in the second half with the lead, and the slight scare that Minnesota put on them kept their heads from getting too big.
Still, that game played directly into what should be Green Bay’s defensive strengths. They had a 29-10 lead going into the final frame. This is right where Green Bay wants to be. With Minnesota’s run game neutralized, a weak pass protecting o-line, and Green Bay’s strong secondary, the Packers should have teed off.
Instead, on their next drive after taking a 29-10 lead, the Vikings when 77 yards in four plays and made it an eleven point affair.
It was a bit worrisome.
Now, they also held Minnesota to 134 yards on the ground, and 34 of those yards were from Kirk Cousins running for his life, and if you would have told me a week ago that Green Bay would hold Cook and Mattison to 50 yards a piece I would have absolutely taken that. I’m more worried about the big plays they gave up.
Look for them to get back on track at home this week.
You’ll get more of the same from Crosby on Sunday, and the Packers will come out with a 44-20 victory.
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