For about a year now, Jordan Love has been tossed around in trade rumors. No one knows his value, as he has had very limited playtime. Some analysts think Love’s value is, at best, a third-round pick, and others believe that his value could be as high as an early second-round pick. Let’s look at some previous QB trades and the value gotten for them.
Jordan Love value comparison
Schaub’s value seems to be closest to what Love’s could be, at least from a 2007 standpoint. Schaub hadn’t had much playing time, only two starts in three years. That being said, he had about 100 more pass attempts than Love currently has. Schaub’s stats were also not very eye-popping. 84-161 (52.2%) for 1,033 yards 6 TDs – 6 INTs and a 69.2 passer rating. Not very promising statistics for what the Texans gave up.
The Falcons and Texans swapped their first-round picks (the Falcons moved up two spots). The Falcons also received a 2007 second-round pick and a 2008 second-round pick in return for Schaub.
Jordan Love doesn’t have as many pass attempts as Schaub, but they still have similar statistics.
Love: 58% completion, 3.2 TD%, 4.8 INT%, 6.6 Y/A, 68.7 passer rating
Schaub: 52.2% completion, 3.7 TD%, 3.7 INT%, 6.4 Y/A , 69.2 passer rating
If Schaub got the Falcons two second-round picks and an earlier first-round pick, could Love provide the Packers with multiple Day 2 picks and/or perhaps a move-up in the draft?
Probably the trade that most people will think about when discussing a potential Love trade is the Jimmy G trade. Garoppolo was drafted into a similar situation to Jordan Love. He was drafted in an early round after a “down-year” from an again Hall of Fame QB. Both picks amassed a lot of scrutinies. The big difference between the two players is that Jimmy G showed flashes of greatness in his playing time on the Patriots.
He won the Patriots two games during Brady’s suspension in 2016, and he threw for 690 yards and 5 TDs in his first three seasons in the NFL (stats mainly from 3 games). Those performances gave the 49ers hope that Jimmy G could be a QB to lead their team to the Super Bowl, so they traded the 43rd overall pick for him.
If Jimmy G’s value was only that of a second, it could mean that Love’s value is that of a third-round pick at most. Love has shown flashes and has produced some nice drives, nearly beating the Chiefs, but his statistics leave much to be desired. A QB needy team could take a chance on Love’s potential and give up a premium pick hoping that Love provides them with what Jimmy G did for the 49ers.
Who could forget the trade that brought Brett Favre to the Packers? This trade was one of the biggest fleeces in NFL history. The Packers gave up the 17th overall pick for third-string QB Brett Favre. Favre looked even worse than Jordan Love did in his first season playing. Favre threw a total of four passes, two of which were intercepted. That didn’t deter Ron Wolf from going with his gut and giving up such a premium pick for Favre.
Favre didn’t look all that great in his final year of college either (similar to Love). He threw 7 TDs to 6 INTs in 11 games during his senior year. Pretty poor stats for a guy you think could be the franchise guy. If an NFL GM believes that Love is their guy, it is not out of the realm of possibility to receive a premium pick for him.
Sam Darnold is a former third-overall pick who never lived up to his draft pick. Jordan Love is in a similar situation. He was a first-round pick but only has one start under his belt after two seasons. Luckily for Love, he is only going into this third year and still has time to improve. Darnold, however, is at the stage where it’s make-or-break. He’s playing on his 5th-year option, and if he doesn’t show signs of improvement, he may be out of a starting job in the NFL.
All that being said and Darnold’s lack of on-the-field production got the Jets three draft picks for him. The Panthers traded a 2021 sixth-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2022 fourth-round pick. Darnold indeed has more starting experience than Love, but that experience came with a lot of poor play. If Darnold can get a future second and two other draft picks, Love should be able to, at least, warrant a second-round pick.
Like Sam Darnold, Rosen was an early first-round draft pick who never lived up to his draft selection. The Cardinals selected Rosen with the 10th overall pick in 2018. In his first year, he threw more interceptions than TDs (11 TDs – 14 INTs). The Cardinals had a 3-10 record under Rosen. You could argue that the Cardinals gave up on Rosen too soon, as Rosen was traded to the Dolphins following his rookie season. After an abysmal rookie season, the Dolphins still traded a second-round pick (62 overall) for him.
Rosen left the NFL world with a lot to be desired, but his value was still that of a late-second round pick. Jordan Love has sat behind one of the greatest QBs of all time. His value should be at least equal to, if not more than, Josh Rosen’s.
Final Thoughts on Jordan Love
The fact of the matter is that, despite all these prior trades to draw from, Love’s value is still unknown. As fans, we have no idea how NFL GMs view Love. Analysts can make all the predictions they want, but they know just as much as the fans. Love’s value is probably between a late first-round pick and a mid-third-round pick.
I see the highest draft pick in a straight-up trade for Love is pick 20 from the Steelers. They’re a very QB needy team, with Mitch Trubisky at the helm, and Love would provide a very interesting QB battle to watch if the Steelers pull the trigger on a trade.
In my opinion, if Jordan Love is traded this off-season, it will be in a trade package to move up in the draft. The most logical scenario is to keep Love for the 2022-23 season in hopes he improves. If he improves, his value could skyrocket, and the Packers could have their choice of first-round picks or game-changing players for the 2023-24 season.
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