ESPN Draft Predictor Says Who Will Be Available at Pick #15, High Odds for a Surprising Offensive Selection

As of this article, Aaron Rodgers remains a member of the Green Bay Packers and not the New York Jets. This means Brian Gutekunst and his Packers, for now, won’t be drafting until pick 15 (and not potentially 13). The execution of said trade would obviously send waves through the multitude of mock draft predictions and prognostications, but until then we move forward business-as-usual with Green Bay picking squarely in the middle of round 1.

Ahead of the draft, ESPN Analytics has released their NFL Draft Predictor. The model collects data from several sources, including expert mock drafts, prospect grades and others to see the chances of where a potential draft pick might end up and the chances they’ll be available at a certain point in the draft. Using this tool, let’s investigate what ESPN’s research has to say about the Packers at 15.

ESPN Model Suggests High Percentage Green Bay Selects a Surprising Offensive Talent

Many around the league, especially inside the Packers community, have had a slew of offensive players falling into the lap of Gutekunst in the first round in their pre-draft analysis. Typically, they’ve been either one of the many talented offensive tackles in the early part of this year’s draft or a top-flight receiver.

There’s also been plenty of talk around Green Bay instead going defense with a number of high-profile pass rushers littered about the first round. Looking at ESPN’s top most likely to be picked at 15, we see some of those familiar names and selections, with Clemson DE Myles Murphy with the highest chance. However, you don’t have to look too far down the list to see one name that jumps out near the top of the list: Texas running back Bijan Robinson.

A running back in the first round might come as a bit of a shock to Packers fans who most likely would prefer to see someone like Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba if they decide to go offensive, who does come in just behind Robinson as the third most likely pick. Looking at some of the numbers behind the analysis, though, maybe ESPN understands Brian Gutekunst better than we think.

While both ESPN draft expert mock draft rankings have Robinson at 18, the Texas running back is ranked as the second-best overall player in the draft. Green Bay has been run by front offices that have shown, year-after-year, they’re willing to buck the majority draft opinion and instead select the best available player.

With that in mind, if most draft predictions are true and top wide receiver talent isn’t available at 15, Robinson does become an intriguing prospect for Gutekunst. Combine that with the fact that star running back Aaron Jones is only under contract for two more season, and after which he would be 30 years old, the Packers could stick to their trend of finding replacements for key skill positions a year or two early.

Currently, ESPN’s model has Robinson most likely to be picked at 15 by the Packers. It’ll be interesting to see how a potential Rodgers trade would affect these numbers, especially if it means a higher pick for Green Bay.

What about Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

Of course it wouldn’t feel write to discuss the Packers potential draft selections and not mention the “white whale”, Jaxon Smith Njigba. Arguably considered to be the top wide receiver in this year’s draft, he’s coveted by internet GMs across nearly every fan base picking inside the top 20 of the first round. And while he may be high on the list of chances taken, he still needs to be on the board when it comes time to hand in the card. So what are the odds he could be donning the Green and Gold next season? According to the models, not great, Bob.

ESPN’s model currently has the Buckeye wide receiver going to one of two very likely landing spots: either Tennessee at 11 or the Texans at 12, both of whom are in desperate need of help at the position. Looking at it from the other side of chances he’ll be available, it doesn’t get better.

This provides a gloomy forecast for any Cheeseheads planning to buy a Smith-Njigba jersey. Even with the pie-in-the-sky hopes of receiving pick 13 from the Jets, ESPN gives just about a 50/50 chance he would be available. If these predictions are accurate, we can glean two near-facts if the Packers want to draft Jaxon:

1. They will have to trade up, regardless if it’s from 13 or 15.
2. They will need to trade up inside the top 10 at the very least, which means a sacrifice of not-insignificant proportions.

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