At one point, the Wisconsin Badgers were among the hottest teams in the country. They were fresh off a win against the 12th ranked Maryland Terrapins and had the thought of a conference title in the back of their optimistic minds. The excitement continued to build as they gained a full head of steam after starting their conference play with the aforementioned impressive win over Maryland. They knocked off perennial contender Iowa and trampled out of conference opponents Lehigh and Western Michigan. They had won 6 in a row, including beating in state rival Marquette, who could themselves be one of the best teams in the country. But then they just… stopped.
College basketball is a fickle game. With it’s dizzying highs and humbling lows for all 300 plus teams in the nation every year. Goodness, just look at the Big 12’s darling Baylor Bears. At one point ranked 6th, only to now be struggling to garner votes on a weekly basis after struggling in 3 straight games to Iowa State, Kansas State and #17 TCU. On the contrary, Charleston is stacking wins like Lego bricks. Don’t worry, we had to look up what conference they were in too. Posting a dazzling 16-1 record with that lone loss coming at the hands of one of the nations best, North Carolina.
Wisconsin obviously has taken their lumps this season to accompany their crazy wicked highs. At one point they graced the rankings at #14, non coincidentally the week right before they’re losing streak knocked them down to #18. Following that they lost to the Fighting Illini and then three days later dropped their game against Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
There are two massive questions that we must ask at this point in the season; Can the Badgers make a run at the Big 10 title still? Or should we be more worried about slipping out of the graces of the committee and tumbling to a point where Badgers fans sit in sorrow on Selection Sunday?
CAN THE BADGERS STILL WIN THE BIG 10?
There are 15 games left in the remaining in the regular season before the conference tournament begins. With two ways to get into the dance. Either win the Big 10 tournament or be selected by aforementioned committee. it would be easy to look at the odds and the current state of play and think, “Holy Moly we aren’t going to be dancing in March!” It may seem like a long shot to win the Big 10 considering Wisconsin would have to beat the likes of Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern but I wouldn’t scoff at putting a bet on it. Since current head coach Greg Gard took over a the helm the Badgers are 86-52 in Big 10 play. It’s a sure fire indicator that this team plays well this time of year against familiar opponents. Having only one losing record in conference in that time span, the trend says that even if the Badgers don’t WIN the Big 10, they will compete and likely improve their standing within arguably one of the most competitive conferences.
The chances for the Badgers to win the Big 10 regular season crown are zero to none considering Purdue is having such an outstanding season. Purdue would have to have to stage a complete U-turn and tank almost the entire remaining slate of games. This is not completely out of the question but is highly unlikely. This means the best hope for a conference title for the Badgers lies within the conference tournament itself. They have a better chance at taking home the real crown and the automatic bid by winning in the Big 10 tournament championship. Odds are they would have to knock off Purdue once or they get lucky enough to have another team beat them early in the tournament. Let’s just say that the chances of the Badgers winning the Big 10 aren’t crazy, they are just unlikely.
Will Wisconsin Miss The Tournament?
On all accounts this is a down year for the Big 10 conference, which could be good for the Badgers, or it could also lead to a tougher road ahead. Assuming they don’t win the regular season title or the conference championship, the Badgers will be vying for an at large bid into the big dance. Joe Lunardi currently has the Badgers in the 8 seed against the aforementioned Charleston Golden Eagles (It’s like Wisconsin can’t escape that mascot). This is a very good thing because the committee doesn’t see the lack of ranked teams in the Big 10 to be a deciding factor in strength of schedule or ability of the team heading into the tournament.
Having only played 2 games against ranked teams (Loss to #3 Kansas and Win vs. #13 Maryland) with only one more scheduled against the Boilermakers of Purdue it doesn’t seem that strength of schedule, or lack thereof, is going to be the major factor in the committee selecting the Badgers for the dance. The committee only considers strength of schedule and it is not the main deciding factor. Generally the heaviest weight in the decision is the NET score which puts a lot more emphasis on a teams efficiency in offensive and defensive possessions instead of broader metrics such as strength of schedule. As of this writing the Badgers are 60th in NET rating in the nation, factor in the variable that they are in a major conference and do have a better track record than schools that are in lesser conferences, and this places Wisconsin firmly in the middle of the at large bids.
In this scenario, I think it would be crazier that the Badgers miss the dance than win the Big 10. Barring a catastrophic downturn in production and losses against struggling schools, the Badgers will be dancing in March yet again.
