Every Packers fan knows this franchise has a plethora of decisions to make during the offseason. Bringing back player X, letting player Y go, etc. However some decisions are much larger than others. The biggest choice Green Bay needs to make is this: do they bring back Aaron Rodgers?
Not into a rebuild
Aaron Rodgers has said publicly after the season ended, “I don’t want to be a part of a rebuild.” This makes sense considering Aaron Rodgers is already 38 years old. Yes, quarterbacks can play well into their 40s; Tom Brady just retired and had a very successful season at 45. But that isn’t the norm. The norm is Big Ben, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning who declined rapidly after the age of 40. That’s not to say Rodgers will decline rapidly, but rather to emphasize the importance of not wasting any of his remaining seasons on a rebuilding franchise.
What the money says
The Green Bay Packers are entering new territory this offseason. Currently, the Packers are $40.4 million over the cap – second highest behind only the Saints. Free agents to sign include Allen Lazard, MVS, Rasul Douglas, De’Vondre Campbell, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan, Chandon Sullivan, Kevin King, Equanimeous St. Brown, Corey Bojorquez, and more. All of them were key contributors this season and played a direct part in the Packers securing the NFC’s #1 seed.
Aaron Rodgers currently has a cap hit for next season at $46 million dollars, with a dead cap hit of $26 million. No matter what happens, the Packers will pay Rodgers $26 million dollars next season, even if he is traded. It’s impossible to imagine Green Bay bringing Rodgers back on his current contract. Therefore, an extension will be negotiated and worked through. For the purpose of this article and exploring if the team could avoid a rebuild, let’s say it’s a two-year extension, signing Rodgers through the 2024-2025 season and backloading a large portion of it.
Free up cap space
If the Packers do sign Rodgers to an extension, they would immediately gain cap room flexibility for the 2022-2023 season and be able to re-sign a chunk of their free agents. There’s also contracts that will be restructured with guys like David Bahktari, Kenny Clark, and Adrian Amos. That will free up additional cap space, and other players can be cut to save money.
The problem with restructuring and continuing to “kick the can down the line” is that eventually, you have to right the ship and pay up. Imagine you’re continually using your credit card and only paying the minimum payment. Sooner or later, you have to suck it up and pay a large portion of that balance. Green Bay will eventually have to pay their balance.
Now that we have the logistics and numbers out of the way, let’s figure out if the Packers could avoid a rebuild in the next three years with Rodgers on the team.
2022-2023 Season
Let’s say the Packers spend most of their cap this offseason and bring back most of the team for another go around at the Super Bowl. After the 2022-2023 season, the Packers would be looking at a number of their players being free agents and at the end of their deals. These players include Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage (could pick up fifth year option), Rashan Gary (could pick up fifth year option), Elgton Jenkins, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, Dean Lowry, and Billy Turner, just to name a few. Smith, Lowry, and Turner all played a huge part in the Packers securing the NFC #1 seed and home field advantage, but could be cut this offseason to make additional cap room.
It’s reasonable to imagine the Packers don’t secure the #1 seed without Smith and Turner at a minimum. So right there, the Packers are rebuilding their pass rush and rebuilding their offensive line after losing two starters in Lucas Patrick and Billy Turner at the start of Aaron Rodgers’ extension. Not only would the Packers be rebuilding their pass rush from losing both Smiths in two years, but potentially rebuilding their defensive secondary after potentially losing both safeties in Amos and Savage.
Beyond the 2022-2023 Season
Already in the first year of Aaron Rodgers’ actual extension, the Packers are looking at rebuilding the pass rush, the right tackle spot, and most likely losing one of the backend defensive backs in Savage or Amos. From this year’s squad, you’re looking at a number of starters and key personnel not being on the team. This is just after the 2022-2023 season, so you can see the challenge ahead for the Packers and their roster.
The answer to the question, “Can the Packers avoid a rebuild?” is yes. The Packers could avoid an “immediate rebuild” and bring Rodgers back for next season while signing him and Adams to extensions. However, if one player stays another goes – that’s the way of the NFL. You can’t keep everyone and continue to bring in rookies and guys from the street like Rasul Douglas and De’Vondre Campbell.
The reality
The rebuild is looming, and if it’s not this offseason, it’s the next or the following year. Reality for the Packers is that the changing of the realm is hanging over this team, this fanbase, and the NFL. It will change, and there will be a rebuild eventually. If Green Bay wants the shortest rebuild and the quickest turnaround to be competing at a high level after Rodgers leaves the green-and-gold, then Jordan Love has to be what the Packers’ top personnel thought he could be when they traded up for him. If not, Packers fans might enjoy another year or two of chasing a Super Bowl trophy, only to turn into a prolonged and dragged out rebuild by having to right the cap situation and find a quarterback.
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FULL DISCLAIMER:
There are always ways to push cap down the road and manipulate it. These are not necessarily the moves the Packers will make, but a hypothetical exercise to show that a rebuild is inevitable. Again, the Packers can keep whoever they want, but they can’t keep everyone.
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