The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a 131-126 loss  to the New Orleans Pelicans last night.  They will look to right the ship tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets will look to win games on back-to-back nights after defeating the Pacers 108-105.

Keys to Victory for the Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks have the second-best offense in the NBA.  Averaging 120.1 points per game, they trail only the Brooklyn Nets who average 121.0.  Simply put, the Bucks are going to score, and score a lot.  Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.8 points per game.  Khris Middleton is averaging 21.9 and is currently on pace for a 50/40/90 season.  Three other Bucks players are averaging double figures, and Donte DiVincenzo isn’t far behind at 9.9 points per game.

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The key to victory for the Bucks in nearly every game is defending the three.  Unfortunately, that is something that they have been struggling with for a long time.  This season, the Bucks have the 28th ranked three-point defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 38.9% from three.

In their seven losses this season, the Bucks’ opponents average 39.1% from three.  In their victories, they hold opponents to 33.1%.  This 33.1%, if maintained over the course of the season, would be the third-best in the NBA.  This, of course, is improbable.  However, if the Bucks can somehow find a way to split the difference, to hold opponents to 35-36 percent, they will lose far fewer games.

Keys to Victory for the Hornets

Where the Bucks have a dynamic offense and less-than-stellar defense, the Hornets are the exact opposite.  They have a poor offense that ranks 23rd in the NBA.  They average just 107.7 points per game.  Defensively, they rank ninth, holding opponents to 109.4 points per game.  With a -1.7 differential, it is no surprise that they are just 8-11 on the season.

To beat the Bucks, the Hornets will need to rely on Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier.  Hayward leads the team with 22.9 points per game; Rozier is second, averaging 18.9.  The strength of both players this season is their three-point shooting, which has been established as the Bucks’ biggest defensive weakness.

Hayward is shooting 42.4% from behind the arc this season.  Rozier is even better, with a three point percentage of 43.3%.  Miles Bridges is another three-point threat off the bench for the Hornets, shooting 38.8% from three.

Prediction

Both teams will be playing the second game of a back-to-back.  Expect Milwaukee’s stars, especially Giannis and Middleton, to play between 30-32 minutes, especially if the game is not really that close.  When it comes down to it, the Bucks are simply a better overall team and this game is theirs to lose.  They have lost back-to-back games just once this season, and I do not think they will do so tonight.

Look for the Bucks to pull out a 115-105 victory.

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