More than 1/2 way into the season, what might the Bucks final record be?
Related: (Dec) Bucks Projected Record Comes into Focus.
The Bucks finished 51-31 last year. They lost to eventual NBA Finals participant Boston in a hard fought series in which Khris Middleton went down with injury in the playoffs. Middleton is back; Giannis seems healthy too. Is there reason for optimism yet?
The Milwaukee Bucks got off to a red hot 9-0 start. Then they cooled off, going 21-17 after that. Part of the mediocre play was from an 0-4 run on a tough road trip. And it is well chronicled that this is an older roster that has struggled at times with “load management” and injuries.
Now, with Khris Middleton and Giannis seemingly back, but with Bobby Portis lost for 4-6 weeks, where might the Bucks end up? Including tonight’s home match-up vs Denver, Milwaukee has 34 games remaining. For them to finish 51-31 they would need to go 21-14 to finish out the year. That does seem reasonable and would match last year’s win-loss record. Deja’ Vu?
The Data
According to Team Rankings, a sports analytics site, the Bucks projected record is 50-32. The continues to go down from an earlier guess of 54-28 from that same site. So why is it going down?
Well, for one, the Bucks have been so streaky. Again, going back to the 9-0 start they seemed indefensible. Now, it seems to matter so much who is playing vs who is not.
Also, the Eastern Conference has just been really unstable this season. Seemingly a stronger conference than the Western Conference, the East has up and down teams like the Nets and 76er’s. Those squads have been even more up and down than Milwaukee. For those teams it also might come down to who is playing vs who is not.
50-32 vs 51-31
The Bucks have had some very kind schedule quirks from the NBA schedule makers. Take tonight vs Denver for example. With Denver being on a back-to-back, Milwaukee has a nice advantage.
According to Five Thirty Eight, the Bucks will finish with the exact same record as last year at 51-31. And it seems reasonable. That team, and this team, have a similar make up. Who knows how much the Portis injury will impact this team?
Both records should put the Bucks at either the 3rd seed or the 4th seed.
Related: Portis Injury Update
Strength of Schedule
According to Tankathon.com, the Bucks have the 5th hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. They still have to play Boston and the Nets twice. But they also get Detroit once more and the Magic and Raptors twice.
That website also has the Knicks as a team with the hardest remaining schedule. On their rankings there is not a standout number either way. Parity still exists in the NBA at this point of the year.
Remember the Christmas Day game? While the loss to the Celtics was a disappointment, in retrospect, it feels like they simply were not loaded up enough with shooters. The Bucks seem to really need Khris Middleton. Will the team make a move here near the February 9th NBA trading deadline? It seems so.
Will Boston? Rumors abound with some of the injuries they have faced (Grant Williams, Marcus Smart) they too are looking for point guard help.
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