Brian Gutekunst is going into his 6th season of being the GM for the Green Bay Packers. Some fans think he has built a roster full of young talent. Others think his short comings were masked by the greatness of Rodgers. Since this will be the first year that he and the Packers don’t have Rodgers under center, should he be considered in the hot seat like many fans think for QB Jordan Love and HC Matt LeFleur? Well let’s take a quick look at his track record.

Every First Round Pick Made by Gutekunst
While there are a total of seven rounds in the NFL Draft, it is obvious that the first round is the one that has the biggest impact not only for the team, but on how a GM is looked at in terms of success. Everyone knows that nobody knows which player will do great in the league or not. Even in the first round, the success rate for all GMs is right around 50%. In fact, according to an article by Wolf Sports, Howie Roseman himself said that Hall of Fame GMs hit on 60% of their first round picks. This is coming from arguable the best GM in the league right now.
Since 2018, when Gutekunst first became the GM of the packers, he has made a total of eight first round selections. This is because he had two first round picks in 2019 and 2022. To be just an average GM he would need about 50% of those players to be hits, which is four players. To be a great GM, he would need 60% of them to be hits, which would be at least five players. Let’s take a look at who he has selected in the first round so far.
First round picks
2018 – CB Jaire Alexander
2019 – LB/Edge Rashan Gary & S Darnell Savage Jr.
2020 – QB Jordan Love
2021 – CB Eric Stokes
2022 – LB Quay Walker & DT Devonte Wyatt
2023 – Edge Lukas Van Ness
I think Alexander and Gary are hits. Alexander has been to two pro bowls and selected second team all-pro twice. He is also coming off a career year where he had five interceptions. Gary started slow, but had 9.5 sack in 2021 and six sacks in 2022 despite only playing in nine games. Savage is a miss to me. According to an article by Robin Adams, he has been horrible the past two seasons and is on the trade block.
Love and Stokes are TBD for me. Love may be entering his fourth season, but he was backing up Rodgers during that time. This year could possibly be his make-or-break year. Stokes is entering his third year so it’s still early to decide on him, especially since he was injured last season. This could be a make-or-break season for him as well. Walker and Wyatt didn’t dominate on their rookie season, but could still develop into great players while Van Ness is going into his rookie year.
Overall Analysis
So far, Gutekunst has two hits and one miss, with two more potential misses. The other three still have a season or two before deciding. If Love and Stokes are hits, that would put Gutekunst at 80% hit. If they are both misses though, that would put him at 40%. Usually that isn’t too bad for a GM. Why I think he would be on the hot seat though is because of the position he drafted when picking Love. Selecting a QB in the first round and missing can set a franchise back years. Selecting any other position and missing doesn’t set the franchise back by much.
Hidden Gems Found by Gutekunst
Some GMs miss on their first round pick, but make up for it with the other six rounds. Some players Gutekunst has picked in later rounds have turned out to be good or great players. Some of them include P JK Scott, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, C/G Elgton Jenkins, RB AJ Dillon, and G Jon Runyan. Scott allowed the fewest punt return yards last season for the Chargers. MVS just won a super bowl with the Chiefs, still bitter about that. Jenkins signed an extension with us. Dillon could be seen as a better back than Jones. And Runyan has been a starter for the past two seasons at guard.
The question is, are these enough to save Gutekunst if Love, Stokes, Walker, Wyatt, and Van Ness don’t pan out? I would say no. While these players were good selections, none of them are enough to make up for multiple first round misses. Jenkins and Dillon are the best ones, and they were both second round picks which is what you can expect for a pick in that round.
Conclusion
After looking at all of Gutekunst’s first round picks, and some of his later round picks, I truly think this is a do or die season for him. It is possible that even if the Packers don’t do good this year, they’ll give him one more season to see if his recent selections develop, but that is hanging by a string. I think the biggest factor is Love. Investing a first rounder in him even though you have Rodgers under center is a career altering move that puts his job on the line. This year just might be the year he reaps what he sowed when making that selection.
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