Brewers: The Willy Adames Dilemma

Will they or won’t they? Or, more importantly, should they or shouldn’t they?

The Milwaukee Brewers have undoubtedly begun to ponder those questions regarding the long-term status of Willy Adames. A decided fan-favorite during his year and a half in Milwaukee, tough decisions will need to be made on whether or not the Brewers heavily invest both dollars and time in the 27-year-old shortstop. Both opinions have valid points; the pros and cons lists detailing whether or not to negotiate a deal after his current contract expires following the 2024 season are extensive. Taking into account the small-market status of the Brewers, general manager Matt Arnold and team owner Mark Attanasio have a major dilemma to resolve that could dictate their team’s fortunes for the foreseeable future.

SHOULD THEY…?

Ever since he debuted for the Brewers after a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2021, Adames has delivered and proven his worth. Despite playing in just 99 games for Milwaukee in 2021, he was voted team MVP by the Milwaukee chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA) after slugging 20 home runs and batting .285, spearheading the Brewers’ push to a fourth straight playoff berth. During that span after his debut on May 22, he was even considered a serious candidate for the National League Most Valuable Player award.

As an encore in 2022, he repeated as team MVP after belting 31 homers and driving in 98 runs. Rating the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among all MLB shortstops in 2022, Fangraphs listed Adames as the 6th-best at that position, earning a grade of 4.7, which ranked above the likes of Bo Bichette and Carlos Correa.

Defensively, Adames is equally regarded as one of the more respected shortstops in the game. His fielding percentage of .974 was seventh in the National League, even though he faced the fourth-most amount of chances.

Based on his offensive production and defensive abilities, extending Adames after the 2024 season seems like a must to keep his bat and glove in the lineup. However, other factors beyond what happens between the lines will certainly be explored.

…OR SHOULDN’T THEY?

Although he repeated as team MVP in 2022, Adames’ numbers did decline considerably from the year before and should bear notice to determine if the downward spiral continues in 2023. His batting average dipped 47 points from the year before to .238, and his OPS slipped from .886 in 2021 to .756 in 2022. Seeing this, the Brewers have a legitimate concern about whether this was an outlier or the start of a continued trend, one that demands close scrutiny going forward.

Another variable to keep in mind is how long the organization will keep prospect Brice Turang buried in their minor league system. The 2018 first-round draft choice spent last year in Nashville, hitting a respectable .286 while pounding 13 home runs, and is positioned to make a run at the big-league roster in 2023.

The enormous contracts shortstops around baseball have signed over the last two years do not bode well for cost-conscious Milwaukee. Since the start of 2021, here is a list of premier shortstops inked to MLB megadeals:

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million)

• Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million)

• Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million)

• Javier Báez (six years, $140 million)

• Trevor Story (six years, $140 million)

• Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million)

• Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million)

• Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million)

• Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million)

Adames has professed his love for Milwaukee and playing for the Brewers, saying, “I love the city, I love the fans, I Iove playing here.” Unfortunately, the Brewers are forced into frugality in order to economically compete in the current MLB landscape, and keeping an expensive Adames, not to mention trying to keep their plus-pitching staff intact, may prove next to impossible. In other words, their checkbook is not as accessible and open as other teams, and they must decide how to get the most bang for their precious bucks and keep a contender on the field. Do they back up the Brinks truck to Adames’ door in 2025, or does economics dictate his future elsewhere?

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