It is only fitting that the Milwaukee Brewers will face their fiercest foe, the Chicago Cubs, in the 2025 National League Division Series. Once down 6.5 games in the NL Central, the Brewers stormed back to win the division by five. Armed with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, Milwaukee will welcome the Cubs to American Family Field for Game 1 on Saturday. Despite being the one-seed, the Brewers are only slight favorites – by a few percentage points – to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2018.
Series will be decided by razor-thin margins, betting market projects
It depends on where you look, but oddsmakers at one prominent book have the Brewers priced as low as -116 to win the series, compared to +100 for the Cubs. A slightly more optimistic projection lists them at -130 and the Cubs at +110. In the first case, averaging out the odds gives Milwaukee a 51.85% chance in the first case and 54.45% in the second. The Cubs won the regular season series seven games to six, but they will also be at a pitching disadvantage after playing in round one.
Coming off a bye, Milwaukee will have the luxury of trotting out a well-rested Freddy Peralta as their Game 1 starter. His last appearance consisted of two innings in the regular season finale – a preparatory tuneup. Peralta finished the season 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 204 strikeouts.
For Chicago, it isn’t as clear. Matthew Boyd won’t have had a full five days rest by Saturday after starting Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. He was, though, available in relief even today against San Diego and at one point started warming up in the bullpen. In the end, the Cubs didn’t need him, holding off the Padres for a series-clinching 3-1 victory. The next order of business is deciding whether to use him on short rest in Milwaukee. Because he threw only 58 pitches in Game 1, he is a decent bet to go.
If not Boyd, former Brewer Colin Rea is an option. No. 2 starter Shota Imanaga threw four innings (67 pitches) in Game 2 yesterday, so the soonest he could go would be Sunday, October 5. Since there will be a day off between the first two games, and between games four and five if necessary, the Cubs could get away with a tandem of Boyd, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd, Imanaga for the series.
The Brewers, meanwhile, could counter with Peralta, Quinn Priester, and…after that it gets hairy. The vibes on a potential Brandon Woodruff return are not good. Jose Quintana should be available, but do they want to use him? Jacob Misiorowski is on probation and seems unlikely to occupy more than an opener’s role. So, Chad Patrick in Game 3, then Peralta and Priester in Games 4 and 5? Something like that could work.
First pitch will come at either 1:08 or 8:08 PM CT, an outcome absurdly dependent on what happens in the ALDS between the Red Sox and Yankees.
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