Brewers third baseman Caleb Durbin is having an incredibly underrated season. Fourth in Rookie of the Year odds, his 2.7 WAR is tied for second among NL rookies. He is perhaps the most well-rounded candidate, showcasing a combination of solid defense, contact skills, sneaky power, and good baserunning.
Durbin’s strong case likely won’t be enough to win over voters. Riding two-and-a-half months of excellence, Cubs rookie hurler Cade Horton has steamed atop the odds leaderboard. Entering Saturday, he was listed as the odds-on favorite ahead of Braves catcher Drake Baldwin in second. In the betting market, those two lead the pack and Horton is pulling away.
Is that fair to Brewers candidates like Durbin and Isaac Collins? The latter has faded from his brightest, but he still has good numbers. Is it fair to Baldwin? Let’s take a look at Horton’s case.
Lights-out run has vaulted Horton to the top over Brewers’, Braves’ entries
Perhaps more than any other award, Rookie of the Year races are often decided by momentum. (Remember how Jacob Misiorowski was favored after two starts. Oddsmakers jumped the gun a bit on that one.) The pool of candidates is smaller than for MVP or Cy Young, and the players are less predictable. If a rookie starts out hot, it can be hard to tell whether it’s a fluke or repeatable success. The names on the leaderboard flip-flop throughout the season.
Horton is peaking at the right time. Earlier this season, he wasn’t even on the radar. He had a 4.80 ERA in his first 45 innings. Since July, the script has flipped drastically.
In his last 15 appearances covering 70 innings, Horton has a 1.29 ERA on 42 hits and just three home runs. He has a respectable 62 strikeouts versus 19 walks. In that time frame, he hasn’t just stood out among rookies, Horton has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
His numbers overall: 11-4 with a 2.66 ERA in 115 IP, 95 Ks,, 93 hits, a .614 OPS against. He has a WAR of 1.9.
While Durbin (2.7), Baldwin (2.7), and Collins (2.0) rank ahead of him, Horton’s extended stretch of dominance is undeniable. So does fellow Cubs rookie Matt Shaw (2.9), a Gold Glove contender at third. In momentum, Horton has the clear advantage. Still listed third by odds, Collins has fallen off somewhat. Durbin and Baldwin have produced steadily for most of the season, but they aren’t running white-hot like Horton is on the mound right now.
Combining his numbers and narrative appeal, it’s hard to quibble with his case as a top candidate. He also has two more starts to make, giving him a chance to boost his WAR in chunks. At the moment, volume is the best argument for guys like Baldwin or Durbin.
All that said, here is one ranker’s opinion on how the top 3 spots should go:
- Baldwin: 17 HR, 73 RBI, .786 OPS. His strong traditional stats from the catcher spot give him the top nod.
- Durbin: 11 HR, 52 RBI, .741 OPS. He has a high-value, well-rounded profile and has been trending up since late May.
- Horton. His case rests on the factors above, but he hasn’t put in the reps to match the top two, who will both finish the year with well over 400 PAs. Horton projects to finish in the neighborhood of 125 innings, which does not quite measure up. He has the steam, but the others have provided a substantial edge in value by WAR.
By oddsmakers’ estimation, that’s not how voters will choose.
For More Great Wisconsin Content
Follow me on X at @ezsniper14 and follow us @WiSportsHeroics for more great content. To read more of our articles and keep up to date on the latest in Wisconsin sports, click here!
