In 122 meetings between the two teams, Green Bay leads the all-time series 63-56-3. Since 2016, Green Bay is 4-8-1 so Minnesota has handled this series as of late. Sunday night the Vikings visit Lambeau Field in hopes to keep their playoff hopes alive and knock Green Bay out of the number 1 seed. No doubt there is a lot riding on this game but what does the betting preview look like ahead of the matchup?
Previous Matchup
Back in week 11 when the Packers traveled to Minnesota, Green Bay was a 1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 47. The Vikings ended up winning this game covering the 1.5 points. In addition to covering, both teams found themselves in a shoot out combining for a total of 65 points, going well over the number of 47.
Current Odds
At the time this article is being written, Green Bay is currently a 13 point favorite with an over/under of 42. These numbers are in light of the Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen news. Cousins was placed on the COVID reserve list this week and Thielen was placed on season ending IR. 13 is a large number, especially in a divisional game. Minnesota will be starting Sean Mannion, whose NFL win column is still empty in his two starts.
Each Team Against The Spread (ATS)
Green Bay has been remarkably dominant ATS. They are currently sporting an 11-4 record ATS. Minnesota is slightly above .500 with a record of 8-7.
The current injury report favors Green Bay. They currently only have two players on the reserve COVID list. The Packers recently activated Jaire Alexander but he, David Bakhitari, and Billy Turner have all been ruled out. Kingsley Keke and Amari Rodgers have also been ruled out do to being placed on the COVID reserve list.
As for the Vikings, they will be without Kirk Cousins, Bisi Johnson and DT Michael Pierce who was recently ruled out due to an illness. Tyler Conklin is expected to play through a hamstring injury.
Forecast
At kickoff, the temperature is expected to be in single digits with a slight breeze of 5 mph according to weather.com. With the wind-chill, temperatures will likely be hovering around 0. There is very little chance for it to be snowing tonight in Lambeau, but it will definitely be cold. Drink up tailgaters.
Spread Pick: Vikings +13
13 is a huge number to cover, especially in the NFL. Covering 13 in a divisional game has only happened one time in the last 5 years and that was the game in Lambeau where Brett Hundley mustered exactly 0 points. The last three weeks Green Bay has allowed an average of 166 yards per game. Dalvin Cook is an elite running back who can pick up big chunks of yards in a hurry. In the last meeting, Cook toted the rock 22 times with Kirk Cousins as QB. Without Cousins, he could be looking at close to 30 carries. On the outside, Justin Jefferson is as talented as they come. Expect Minnesota to use play action and get Jefferson with the ball in space. These two scenarios are why I think Minnesota will cover the 13 points.
Over/Under Pick: Over 42
Since the bye week, Green Bay has given up an average of 27 points per game. The Vikings will be starting a quarterback with very little experience but the athletes he has to get the ball to are elite. Green Bay is averaging 33 points since the bye week. Minnesota’s secondary is banged up and one of their top interior defensive lineman will be out which should have a dangerous offense like Green Bay licking it’s chops. The over/under has also hit 4 of the last 5 weeks in Packer games. Let’s hope the primetime of Sunday night gives us lots of scoring.
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