It was announced this week that Aaron Jones has restructured his contract and will remain with the Green Bay Packers for the 2023 season. There had been some rumblings that the Pack might release Jones, who had a career-high 1,121 yards rushing in 2022, in a payroll saving move. The 2023 season will be his seventh with the team.
The decline of age 29 running backs in the NFL
One of the question marks about bringing Jones back in the fold was age. Jones will be entering his age 29 season in 2023. In a recent look at the number of running backs who gained 1,000 yards in a season since 1970, 554 of the 645 running backs who gained 1,000 or more yards in a season since 1970 were in their age 28 season or younger… that’s just under 86% of the running backs. Conversely, it means that less than 100 running backs in their age 29 season or older rushed for 1,000 or more yards in a season since 1979. That’s less than an average of two per season.
That’s not to say that Aaron Jones will automatically fall into the category of runners whose skills decline when they hit the late 20’s. The stats are the stats, and it does appear that many teams tend to toss aside running backs as they age closer to 30. The Packers are hoping Jones still has a lot in his tank, even if NFL calendar says he might not.
Aaron Jones is one of five GB running backs with 1,000 or more career carries
One thing is for sure, Jones has been incredibly durable in his career with Green Bay. He is one of only five players to have 1,000 or more career rushing attempts with the Packers. The five: Ahman Green (1,851), Jim Taylor (1,811), John Brockington (1,293), Jones (1,035) and Dorsey Levens (1,035). Jones has averaged over 200 carries in the past four seasons.
Back to the discussion about running backs in their age 29 season… The Packers have had only three running backs who gained 1,000 or more yards in their age 29 season:
Jim Taylor, 1,169 in 1964
Ahman Green, 1,059 in 2006
Dorsey Levens, 1,034 in 1999
Fourth on this list is James Starks with 601 rushing yards in 2015.
So, will Jones follow Taylor, Green and Levens? Or will his age 29 season see a decline in his rushing yardage total?
Is a shift in the Pack’s running game on the horizon?
A big factor may be usage. The Packers have one advantage over several NFL teams in that they have a second running back in AJ Dillon who is in his prime (he will be in his age 25 season in 2023) and he has averaged 186.5 rushes and just under 800 rushing yards over the past two seasons. While Jones has received most of the rushing attempts over the past two seasons, we may see a shift in that for the future. That may drag down some of Jones’ stats for 2023, but it may serve the Packers better in the long run.
In any case, now that Jones is back for 2023, it will be interesting how the team uses he and Dillon, and how effective he is as he creeps near the age of 30, typically a dark hole for running backs in the NFL.
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