I never thought this is possible in an article, but I some how feel it’s the correct thing to do for this particular case… I’ll therefore start this article with the conclusion and will then project the analysis which leads to it!
The Conclusion.
- If Allen only gets traded but Nwora renews with the Bucks, the Bucks will trade for a combo guard.
- If Nwora can’t be signed back to a contract that the Bucks can afford, then both get traded (Nwora on a S&T) for a combo guard and a 3&d combo forward.
Why Allen will surely be traded?
The most important reason is “to control the payroll for the 23-24 season”… The Bucks must retain the flexibility to be able and move under the lux tax threshold for that season. The players which contributed to win the championship, all stay. Allen wasn’t one of them and has the highest salary out of all of the rest of the players under contract for that season. Therefore either his salary is removed, or the Bucks pay severe “repeaters tax” after this upcoming season. (which is the last before “repeaters tax kicks in).
Related: Jordan Nwora becomes an offseason headache for the front office.
Second reason is that Bucks had to (again for financial reasons) trade DiVincenzo during the previous reason. Again they couldn’t raise his salary and extend him, or they would inevitably become repeaters tax eligible for the 23-24 season. But DiVincenzo was more useful to the Bucks roster than Allen and they therefore have to replace his absence. Usefulness is not defined by the numbers that the stats show… That’s quite an amateur analysis for one to make or compare the two players (some do, but this isn’t a concern here). Truth is that Donte was a combo guard, while Allen is a wing…
The Bucks are better with two playmaking able guards.
The Bucks are by far better when both the guards are able to playmake the ball. This was evident already when Brogdon was on the roster. It gives Giannis an alternative path to pick and roll the ball with either of the guards and therefore restricts the capability of the opponent to built “walls” against him. It’s why Middleton (who can playmake and assist the ball) is most effective when at 2 and why when Allen was on court last season along with Khris, they most of the time were switching positions with Khris taking the guard…
How what happens with NWORA’S renewal of contract (or not) is related with all this?
Nwora (much like Khris and now MarJon) has both the body of a forward and the dribbling ability of a guard… But additionally, much like Khris, he is gifted with the tremendous footwork which the best of the guards have! He therefore could play three positions at 2, 3, or 4… All he lucks up to now is the experience (which comes with games and work) and the restricted court vision (which again comes with experience and can be taught by coaches). Therefore his up to now drawbacks are correctable. It’s therefore a matter of time when he’ll break to become useful on an NBA roster and his roof isn’t clear as of yet. The potential he shows, suggests that It could be “up to the sky”!
OTOH, Allen doesn’t have anywhere near the footwork, or the dribbling ability, nor the body of Jordan. He can’t therefore play in a position which requires a playmaking able guard. Jordan has all of that and additionally he is sized better and has more strength and ability to penetrate the paint when playing at forward…
Making a long word short.
To make a long word short, what the Bucks added when they landed Allen to the team, they already had on Pat Connaughton (I guess nobody can argue with this) and later on, they’ve added (experienced but ageing) Matthews too… But what they have on Nwora they didn’t have for a long time and even by adding (promising) Beauchamp, it is still only a promise…
On Nwora the Bucks could have all what they were expecting from Jabari Parker when drafted him (and was never revealed – reasons aside). But additionally, all they missed by letting Brogdon go (but the injuries)… Therefore if we part with Nwora we need two players in order to get a replacement. A combo guard and a 3&d combo forward. And even then, there is a good chance that we’ll soon feel bad to let him go…
Just a reminder… Khris was never good when asked to play at 4 despite him having the size… Partly why coach Bud has abandoned the idea that Kidd had at times and increased his ballhandling minutes as a guard. But If we can keep Nwora, no problem on him playing the 4 either!
