The Green Bay Packers have often referred to their two running backs as two “RB1s.” Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon would be likely starters on many of the teams in the NFL. The fact that they’re in the same backfield in Green Bay makes Packers fans extremely lucky. We have all seen what Aaron Jones can do out of the backfield, but also in the receiving game. He has proven to be one of the most versatile backs in the NFL. Yet it still feels like we are just scratching the surface as to what AJ Dillon may be capable of. However this stat from last season (2021) shows just how impactful he can be.
AJ Dillon was the most “successful” running back in 2021 by this metric:
Football Outsiders’ Success Rate metric is very detailed, but very accurate. A first-and-10 run that gains 4-plus yards is a win (or a successful run); a first-and-10 run that gains 3 yards is a loss. A second-down run that gets at least half the remaining yardage is a win (or a success), as is any third-down run that picks up the first down.
Dillon’s success rate was an NFL-best 63 percent. His ability to continually get 4 and 5 yards was a tremendous asset to an offense that converted a league-high 90.9 percent of the time on third-and-1.
What will Dillon’s workload be in 2022?
AJ Dillon’s 187 carries was good enough for 20th in the NFL. With the clear need in Green Bay to run the ball in 2022, coupled with the fact that Aaron Jones may be utilized even more in the passing game, Dillon should see that number jump.
Dillon averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year. If he (and his quads) keep that average, but sees his carries increase from 187 to 250 (which would likely be top 10 in the league) Dillon would clear 1,000 yards easy. AJ Dillon has put himself on the map in Green Bay. However in 2022 he could put himself on the NFL map.
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