Aaron Rodgers is the subject of a lot of speculation in the world of football. It is expected that he is traded, most likely before free agency begins in March, and there have been countless hours and words – both spoken and written – that concern where he will end up and how much a trade will be. Having read many of these hypotheticals, I am going to analyze the true trade value of Aaron Rodgers and not insanely low or high costs that are written specifically to benefit one side or the other.

What are the “others” saying?

Before we delve in, let’s talk about what other sports news pundits are saying about a Rodgers trade and his predicted value. Here are some articles from Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated to help show you what people are saying. In general, the consensus among other sports writers is that Rodgers is worth a first round pick (potentially) and probably two or three more draft picks spread between Day 2 and Day 3. This is the supposed ballpark value of Aaron Rodgers and this is why a lot of “hypothetical” trades aren’t going to see the light of day. Why? Because they are all under-valuing Aaron Rodgers to a laughable degree.

Comparisons to other traded Quarterbacks

Let’s use history as our guide and talk over several other quarterbacks who were traded in recent years to try and set a more realistic ballpark for a quarterback trade. Below we have six trades that all happened in the last two years – no use going back further than that because the League changes so fast.

1. In February of 2021, Carson Wentz was traded from the Eagles to the Colts, for what ended up being a first-round pick (initially a conditional second-round pick, but the conditions were met so it changed to a first-round pick) and a third-round pick.
2. In March of 2021, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams for two first-round picks, one third-round pick, and Jared Goff.
3. In March of 2022, Wentz was traded again, this time to the Commanders for a swap of second-round picks and two third-round picks.
4. Also in March of 2022, Matt Ryan was traded from the Falcons to the Colts for a third-round pick.
5. Again, in March of 2022, Deshaun Watson was traded from the Texans to the Browns for three first-round picks, one third-round pick, and two fourth-round picks.
6. Lastly, once more, in March of 2022, Russell Wilson was traded from the Seahawks to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, and three players (including a former Top 20 overall pick who was a regular starter at tight end).

So, looking at recent quarterback trade history, the writers and analysts of Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, and myriad of other publications all believe that Aaron Rodgers is worth about what 2020 Carson Wentz is worth and not what 2021 Russell Wilson is worth. Let’s go back through this list and talk about the seasons they had right before they were traded, to see what the lingering memory was in the minds of the teams that acquired them.

1. Carson Wentz in 2020 led his team to a 3-8-1 record as a starter with a completion percentage of 57.4%, 2,620 passing yards, 21 total touchdowns, 15 interceptions (led the NFL), and a passer rating of 72.8. So he was by no means stellar when he was traded for a first and third after being benched for some rookie named Jalen Hurts (whatever happened to that guy?) before the season was over. Up to this point in his career he had made one Pro-Bowl and one second-team All-Pro in 2017, the year that Nick Foles led his team to the Super Bowl.
2. Matthew Stafford in 2020 led his team to a 5-11 record as a starter with a completion percentage of 64.2%, 4,084 passing yards, 26 total touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 96.3. That’s a pretty solid year and apparently it was worth two first-round picks and then some. Up to this point, Stafford had been to one Pro-Bowl in 2014, with no All-Pros or Super Bowl appearances.
3. Carson Wentz in 2021 led his team to a 9-8 record as a starter with a completion percentage of 62.4%, 3,563 passing yards, 28 total touchdowns, 7 interceptions (plus 5 lost fumbles), and a passer rating of 94.6. That’s a step up from his previous year, but he still didn’t make the playoffs. That didn’t stop the Commanders from dropping three picks inside the Top 100 to get him to play for them.
4. Matt Ryan in 2021 led his team to a 7-10 record as a starter with a completion percentage of 67%, 3,968 passing yards, 21 total touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.4. He did have an MVP on his resume but had been pretty mediocre since losing the Super Bowl so it’s not a surprise he was only worth one third-rounder. That being said he also had four Pro-Bowl’s and one first team All-Pro on his resume to go with the MVP.
5. Deshaun Watson didn’t play in 2021, but his last full season in 2020 before being traded was pretty impressive. He had a completion percentage of 70.2%, 4,823 passing yards (led the NFL), 36 total touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a passer rating of 112.4. He had made three Pro-Bowls at the time and was only 26, so you can see why the trade package was so big. Oh, I forgot to mention, he also missed the whole 2021 season while dealing with off-the-field controversy surrounding over two dozen sexual assault allegations that ended with an 11-game suspension. So, despite the sexual assault, he was still worth three first-rounders and more.
6. Russell Wilson in 2021 led his team to a 6-8 record as a starter, with a completion percentage of 64.8%, 3,113 passing yards, 27 total touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.1. He was efficient, but it was his worst season since 2017 for most of those statistics and his lowest passing yardage total ever. Regardless, he was traded for a king’s ransom. At the time, he had made nine Pro-Bowls, one second team All-Pro, and a Super Bowl victory as a starter.

Now let’s compare all of those players to Aaron Rodgers. He led his team to an 8-9 record, with a completion percentage of 64.6%, 3,695 passing yards, 27 total touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.1. His resume includes a Super Bowl victory, ten Pro-Bowls, five All-Pros, and four NFL MVPs (second most in NFL history and two of the past three seasons).

Aaron Rodgers’ Real Value

If you can look me dead in the eye, and state that Aaron Rodgers is worth less than Matthew Stafford after reading everything above then I will be incredibly impressed. I would also be staggered and honestly, flabbergasted. To say that Rodgers is worth less now than Stafford was in 2020 is akin saying that Payton Manning in 2012 was worth less than Eli Manning was at the same time. It’s borderline insane. Rodgers just had a down year (by his standards) but so did every single one of the quarterbacks I’ve previously listed, and not only do they not have the resume that Rodgers has, they also don’t have the legitimate excuses that Rodgers has. In 2022, Rodgers started all 17 games, played through a thumb injury, lost his offensive coordinator, and his best offensive weapon in the offseason. While sports writers and football analysts have a recency bias, the NFL doesn’t when it comes to these things. If GMs can forget what Wentz did in 2020 and what Wilson did in 2021, they can forget what happened with Rodgers in 2022 and bet on his upside and not his recent production.

ProFootballTalk’s Peter King recently stated that the Packers are looking at two first-round picks for Aaron Rodgers as the starting point for negotiations, and I would agree that we can expect that to be the cheapest possible package for a player like Rodgers. Let’s talk about what a package might look like and what to expect and not expect.

Firstly, I wouldn’t expect any starting level offensive players to come back in any trade to Green Bay. It’s common to see trades where the Raiders obtain Aaron Rodgers and send Darren Waller (a Pro-Bowl tight end) or Hunter Renfrow (a Pro-Bowl wide receiver) back in return. This would make absolutely zero sense for the team acquiring Rodgers to do, and I would bet money that if any players at all come back in return for Rodgers, they will be rotational players at best.

Secondly, I would expect lots of conditional picks. Beginning with the Wentz trades, we’ve seen conditional picks become more common in NFL trades. Given Rodgers’ flirtation with retirement every offseason, I can see teams sending over several picks that will jump a round or two based on his playing time.

Thirdly, I would expect at least two first round-picks and I wouldn’t be surprised if one didn’t convey this year. The Packers will want to see what they have in Jordan Love throughout the 2023 season, and if he doesn’t pan out then they will want lots of picks in 2024 and 2025 so they can trade up to select a quarterback to replace him. With Caleb Williams and Drake Maye most likely being available in 2024, along with other potential prospects that might rise such as Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix, the Packers will want to hedge their bets in case Love doesn’t pan out.

Fourthly, don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to go to the NFC. I have seen more than a couple of trade scenarios where Rodgers lands in Washington, Seattle, New York (Giants, not Jets), or Tampa Bay. The only way this happens is if those teams pay an insane amount. Green Bay has expressly said they don’t want Rodgers to remain in the NFC so I wouldn’t count on it.

Lastly, don’t expect any trade similar to the ones by Sports Illustrated or Bleacher Report that I linked above. Not only will teams value Aaron Rodgers more than those publications, but teams know they are in a bidding war for him. The Jets, Raiders, Titans, and Colts are all viable contenders for Rodgers’ talents and that’s not including dark horse options like the Dolphins, Patriots, or Ravens who all might want to hop in given the uncertainty of their own quarterback situations. Any deal assuming that a team will obtain Rodgers for a bag of chips and a third-round pick isn’t realistic and isn’t worthy of your attention.