If things break just right, the Green Bay Packers could be the second NFC team to claim a playoff spot in Week 16, after Rams secured a bid on Sunday. First off, they’ll have to take care of business in Chicago – no easy task. Beyond that, Green Bay would have to count on none other than Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to upset the Lions in Detroit. It isn’t a high-probability outcome, but it’s not negligible either. It’s worth a look at the likelihood of removing a little Packers stress from the last couple weeks of the season.
Packers have better than a dice roll’s chance at securing at spot in the playoff field
The Packers head to Soldier Field currently lined as 1.5-point favorites. ESPN FPI projections give them a 59.2% chance of victory. Over at Ford Field, the Steelers come in as 7-point underdogs, with a 33.5% chance to upset.
Combine a Green Bay win and a Lions loss (or tie) and you get 20% odds via FPI probabilities. That’s better than the likelihood of rolling a given number on a six-sided die.
It would also work if the Packers tied and the Lions lost outright, but the percentage there is minute (0.13%).
Here is the full script of playoff-clinching scenarios for the NFC:
The Packers can clinch a playoff spot this week. Here’s how: pic.twitter.com/iQKNBfI3dI
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) December 16, 2025
Obviously, while beating the Bears (10-4) won’t be easy, the taller order is asking Pittsburgh (8-6) to take down the Lions (8-6) on the road. After thrashing the Dolphins on Monday night, the Steelers will be on a short week. So, in fact, will the Packers and Bears with kickoff set for 8:20 PM ET on Saturday. (Sorry, college football, no one’s watching Oregon play James Madison once the NFL kicks off).
Even if that doesn’t happen, however, extending the playoff drama for another week, the Packers can put themselves in great shape atop the NFC North with a win themselves. Right now, they still control their division-title destiny. A loss and all that changes. A loss and a Lions win and things could get dicey with Detroit just a half game back in the playoff hunt.
Getting a favor from Rodgers would be Christmas come early, but more important, of course, is simply taking care of the task at hand. With a Week 16 W, the Packers won’t care too-too much about what Pittsburgh does in Detroit.
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