Welcome back to our third entry in our series on Packers Mock Drafts, where we only draft from one Power Five conference per draft. We previously covered the ACC on Monday and the PAC-12 on Tuesday. Today, we will go into the BIG-12 for an in-depth look at their prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft.
I will be selecting one player, one alternate player, and one dream scenario for every pick the Packers have in the first three rounds. For the Big Board, I used a combination of several I found across the internet to get an idea of where players are going in the minds of most; for the pro comparisons I used mostly thedraftnetwork.com and their comparisons but I also subbed many of my own if I found if they were more to my liking.
Let’s break it down!
- Round 1, Pick 15
- THE PICK: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU / 6’4”-210lbs / Pro Comp: AJ Green
- Johnston is the ideal pick for most Packers fans when they read mock drafts, and there is a reason for that. Johnston’s only real disadvantage is that his height means he has extra room for DBs to get some press on him and he doesn’t always run the cleanest route because he can’t sink his hips sometimes. That’s it. Johnston has speed, size, strength, hands, acceleration, and he’s even got short area burst and shiftiness. For the Packers he would become the standard X receiver, working alone while Christian Watson would operate as a jumbo slot (like Larry Fitzgerald used to do) or Z receiver allowing him to work more with pre-snap motions (like Tyreek Hill but 7 inches taller). That duo would be potentially the best in the NFL.
- ALTERNATE PICK: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas / 6’0”-220lbs / Pro Comp: Christian McCaffrey
- A lot of you are reading this and saying, “Why would we draft a running back in the first round when we have Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon?” That’s a fair question, so I’ll break it down. AJ Dillon is a good, not great, running back right now who hasn’t shown the consistent ability to be a top ten player at the position. He has the talent to become elite, but we haven’t seen it all yet. Aaron Jones is an excellent running but he’s going to turn 29 next season (which is ancient for running backs) and the Packers could save $10.4m if they traded or released him. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson is considered by many draft gurus to be the best offensive talent in this entire draft and a top 3 player overall. The only reason he would fall to the Packers would be because of positional value. As for the fit, Robinson is a mirror image of Christian McCaffrey when it comes to production, capability, and playstyle. He doesn’t really have any weaknesses, and he could easily line up as a wide receiver with his catching abilities. His speed, explosiveness, and elusiveness would allow him to carry an NFL offense almost by himself. Drafting him would give the Packers an offensive workhorse that could be the best in the NFL and allow them to work him with AJ Dillon to create the best RB duo in the NFL and save them money (while potentially gaining draft picks) by trading/releasing Aaron Jones.
- DREAM PICK: Tyree Wilson, Edge Rusher, Texas Tech / 6’6”-275lbs / Pro Comp: Jadeveon Clowney
- Wilson is a versatile defensive lineman who has proven that he can play anywhere from stand-up OLB to hand in the dirt DT. His only weakness is a lack of speed, so he’s probably best as a traditional 4-3 DE or 3-4 DE where he doesn’t have to stand-up and has a shorter line to the QB. Regardless of whether you line him in front of a tackle or a guard, he’s physically domineering and just abuses linemen on his way to the QB. His greatest asset, besides his size, is his strength which he uses to collapse pockets and pressure QBs with incredible consistency. I expect Wilson to be selected closer to #5 than #10, so I doubt he falls to the Packers at #15 but if he did then he could give the Packers a presence that’s somewhere between prime Carlos Dunlap and prime Jadeveon Clowney with the potential to exceed the accomplishment of either.
- Round 2, Pick 45
- THE PICK: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge Rusher, Kansas State / 6’3”-252lbs / Pro Comp: Clay Matthews
- Anudki-Uzomah played for an upstart Kansas State team and showed a lot of potential as a pass rusher. If I was to use one word to describe him, it would be: explosive. His nickname is going to be “Grenade” when he gets to the NFL because of just how bombastic he is. His physicality and strength allow him to blow past offensive linemen and consistently pressures quarterbacks. His weakness is in the run game, he has poor technique and doesn’t know how to shed blockers without getting lost in the sauce. Technique can be taught and his natural pass rushing abilities can’t, so I believe Anudike-Uzomah would be a rotational OLB/DE that could easily win the starting job before the season even starts.
- ALTERNATE PICK: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma / 5’11”-175lbs / Pro Comp: Darnell Mooney
- Mims isn’t the biggest receiver, but he was insanely productive at Oklahoma and has immense talent. His skillset is very similar to Tyreek Hill’s in that he’s a vertical threat and a run-after-catch weapon that is very consistent. The negatives are that the system he played in all but guaranteed him spacing and his route tree is rudimentary because of it. However, he projects as a capable starting WR and would a vertical threat for the team that would fit in well as a slot or boundary receiver.
- DREAM PICK: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma / 6’5”-309lbs / Pro Comp: Taylor Moton
- Harrison has the perfect build to be a tackle in the NFL right now and his body isn’t finished maxing out in size and strength. That combo is a tantalizing prospect but also means he isn’t ready to immediately contribute. In the right scheme, with the right coaching (such as Packers current OC and legendary OL coach, Adam Stenavich) and the proper athletic training he could develop into an amazing left or right tackle in a year or two. I know it’s not fun to draft developmental players this high in the draft, but you can never have too many offensive linemen especially with David Bakhtiari’s recent injury history and age, combined with Elgton Jenkins potentially leaving in free agency. Harrison could be LT1 in one to two seasons.
- Round 3, Pick 78
- THE PICK: Julius Brents, DB, Kansas State / 6’4”-204lbs / Pro Comp: Byron Jones
- Brents has only fallen this far in the draft because he’s not very fast which effects his ability to play man coverage which means he’s scheme dependent (zone coverage). That being said, he is massive for a cornerback, and he isn’t slow enough to be a liability – his 40-yard dash is expected to be in the mid 4.5~ range. His intriguing size and physical tackling ability allow him to be versatile, Kansas State used him as both a cornerback and a safety. So, while I don’t think the Packers need a cornerback, they do need some safeties and Brents can be either one.
- ALTERNATE PICK: Dylan Horton, Edge Rusher, TCU / 6’4”-260lbs / Pro Comp: Connor Barwin
- Horton is a high energy player that believes violence is the answer for your pass rushing problems. He isn’t refined, his pass rushing repertoire is focused on aggression and not much else while his run defending plan is to just throw himself (at any angle possible) into the blockers and hope that he gets a stop. But he has all the physical tools and collegiate production to be a solid pass rusher at the pro level. He projects most naturally as an outside the tackle pass rusher, most likely a 3-4 OLB.
- DREAM PICK: Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State / 6’3”-210lbs / Pro Comp: Brandon Marshall
- Hutchinson is projected to go in the third round by most draft pundits but when I put on the tape, I don’t see it. Instead, I see a WR who can win with speed, quickness, strength, route running, and a myriad of other ways. He fully understands the nuance and precision of route running (from any WR position), and he can execute with excellent body control and stop/start ability. And that’s not even talking about his best traits as a pass catcher, which are his hands and contested catch ability. His ball tracking is beyond elite, and he turns 50-50 balls into 80-20 balls with ease. His only negatives are a lack of instant acceleration and top end speed – his 40-yard dash is expected to be in the 4.5~ range. If he ends up running a 4.4~ 40-yard dash, then fully expect him to become a top 50 player in the draft. If not, then hopefully he falls to the Packers here and becomes the perfect X receiver for this offense.
In our dream scenario, the Packers would have a massive wide receiver to pair with Christian Watson giving them one of the larger WR duos I’ve ever seen and one reminiscent of Randy Moss & Cris Carter in terms of pure size and athleticism. They would also gain a long-term solution at tackle, granted one who probably won’t be ready for another year or two, but one who could take the reigns for the left or right side for quite a while. Finally, they would add an insanely talented pass rusher who would seal the edge and terrorize opposing QBs. I don’t think any Packers fan would be upset with this outcome, and I doubt the Green Bay front office would be bothered either.
Come back tomorrow for our breakdown of the BIG-10!
