There is no sugar-coating this, Green Bay is bound to have a banner night on Monday against Atlanta. In anticipation, we’ve put together five bold fantasy predictions for Green Bay’s matchup against the Falcons.
Of course, the Lazard injury is a big setback, but Adams was back at practice and signs are pointing to him lacing it up on Monday. This, combined with fact that Atlanta has a downright terrible defense, I still expect Green Bay to put up some points.
Atlanta’s Defense is Terrible
Now, before I get to the meat and potatoes, if Aaron Rodgers is not a player of the week contender, we will know that the first three weeks were too good to be true because Atlanta is flat out garbage against the passing game.
In week three, the Falcons surrendered 316 yards through the air in a game where Chicago benched their starting quarterback for Nick Foles, who has not played a meaningful snap of football in just about a year. They also gave up three straight touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to Chicago offense that has been very average.
Green Bay meanwhile is second only to the Seahawks in total touchdowns (14), leads the league in drives ending in scores (66.7%), and Atlanta is DEAD LAST in the league by a country mile at total touchdowns allowed. They’ve given up 14 touchdowns this season, which is a hilarious 56% higher than the league median.
Now, believe me, if this were a McCarthy team, I would be getting nervous about this being a trap game. I have no such butterflies for this group of killers.
So, without further ado, here are five bold predictions for Green Bay’s Week Four matchup, complete with fantasy projections.
As always, you can get your stat fix for all things Packers and Fantasy all season long with my other analytics.
Bold Prediction #1: Aaron Rodgers Finishes with 400+ yards and Four Touchdowns
| Player | Pass TDs | Rush TDs | INTs | Fumbles Lost | Pass Yds | Rush Yds | 2 Pt Conversion | Fantasy Point Projection |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4.0 | – | – | – | 426.0 | 15.0 | – | 34.5 |
Aaron Rodgers is in a different dimension with his quarterback play this year, and perhaps the best part of this season is it looks effortless. The McCarthy era was marred by Aaron Rodgers putting the team on his back. This year, Rodgers is delivering the same production, but without any of the pressure to be the guy.
Green Bay has arguably the best Offensive Line in football, and the evidence is clear. Rodgers has been sacked twice through three weeks. The only QB who has been sacked less is Drew Lock who is injured. It helps to have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the game, but Rodgers legitimately looks like he is playing all-time-QB on the playground.
This is terrible news for a putrid Atlanta defense that ranks second to last in the league in passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed.
Bold Prediction #2: Aaron Jones Puts up 27 Fantasy Points
| Player | Rush/Rec TDs | Rush/Rec Yds | Receptions | Fumbles Lost | 2 Pt Conversion | Fantasy Point Projection |
| Aaron Jones | 2.0 | 136.0 | 4.0 | – | – | 27.6 |
| Jamaal Williams | – | 18.0 | – | – | – | 1.8 |
| Tyler Ervin | – | 14.0 | – | – | – | 1.4 |
| AJ Dillon | – | 12.0 | – | – | – | 1.2 |
Atlanta’s rushing defense is not as bad as its passing defense, but the dangerous part about Green Bay is their rushing and passing attacks work together. I’m no tape rat, but when you watch the All-22 film, their rushing plays and passing plays look the exact same. The offensive line blocks a running play and Rodgers throws it.
Basically, with as vulnerable as Atlanta is in the passing game, Jones should be left to run wild.
Bold Prediction #3: Both Adams and MVS go over 100 Yards Receiving, and Shepherd Steps Up
| Position | Player | Rsh/Rec TDs | Rsh/Rec Yds | Receptions | Fumbles Lost | 2 Pt Conversion | Point Projection |
| WR | Davante Adams | 1.0 | 125.0 | 11.0 | – | – | 24.0 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1.0 | 112.0 | 4.0 | – | – | 19.2 |
| WR | Allen Lazard | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WR | Darius Shepherd | – | 33.0 | 3.0 | – | – | 4.8 |
| WR | Malik Taylor | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| TE | Marcedes Lewis | 1.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 | – | – | 9.2 |
| TE | Robert Tonyan | 1.0 | 32.0 | 5.0 | – | – | 11.7 |
| TE | Jace Sternberger | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| TE | Josiah Deguara | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Now, I am assuming Adams will play Monday as he did practice on the day that I wrote this, and a big night for Rodgers means a big night for the receiving corps. I cannot imagine how much the receiving room is salivating looking at the Atlanta tape through three weeks. Look for MVS to have a big night.
I also think the tight ends have a relatively quiet night. Tonyan has clearly separated himself as TE1, but Big Dog has also proven that he still has some gas in the tank. Don’t expect much out of the group, but I can absolutely see Tonyan having another tuddy this week.
Bold Prediction #4: The Defense Continues to be Leaky
Defense Fantasy Projection: 6.0 Pts
- 28-34 Points Allowed: (1.0) pts
- Three Sacks: 3.0 pts
- Two Interceptions: 4.0 pts
Special Teams Fantasy Projection: 13.0 Pts
- One FG 0-39 Yds (3.0 pts), One FG 40-49 Yds: (4.0 pts)
- Five Extra Points (6.0 pts)
The Falcons offense will be a problem on Monday. Do not be surprised if Atlanta jumps out to a 21-7 lead. I trust Lafleur and the offense though. They should shred Atlanta’s defense even without Lazard.
Bold Prediction #5: Packers Win 48-28
I am worried about Green Bay’s defense, who is banged up, and still has been a liability when fully healthy. However, my confidence in the offense to pick apart Atlanta dwarfs my nerves about the defense.
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