This article is part of a series looking at expectations for the Brewers position units in the 2023 season.
We are just days away from Opening Day 2023 for the Milwaukee Brewers. As we make our way into the last handful of Spring Training games, it’s time to take a look at what to expect for the Brewers’ starting rotation.
There are still some roster spots that are up in the air, but in terms of the starting rotation, it seems to be pretty much solidified in who will be the Brewers’ starting arms.
Starters (5) – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Wade Miley
The top four spots really were locked in before the season began. The fifth arm was up in the air once Aaron Ashby went down with an injury. However, with the signing of then free agent Wade Miley, it looks like Craig Counsell has his fifth arm for the rotation.
Let’s take a look at each individual pitcher going into 2023.
Corbin Burnes
It was announced on Friday that Corbin Burnes would be the opening-day starter for a second consecutive year. In 2022, Burnes pitched a career-high 202 innings and struck out 243 with a 12-8 record. He also led the league with 33 starts and pitched a 2.94 ERA after a 2021 Cy Young season ERA of 2.43.
According to Baseball Reference, he’s projected to pitch 177 innings with an ERA of 2.95 and 214 strikeouts which would be yet another ace season from the former Cy Young Award winner.
Brandon Woodruff
If Corbin Burnes wasn’t the number one ace in the rotation, Brandon Woodruff would definitely have that spot snatched up. In his last three seasons as a starter, Woodruff has finished with ERAs around 3.00, including an ERA of 3.05 in 2022. Woodruff is a two-time All-Star and he was arguably Milwaukee’s best pitcher as they went into the second half of the 2022 season. After the All-Star break, Woodruff pitched a 2.38 ERA across 14 starts.
Baseball Reference is projecting Woodruff to have a similar season to 2022, projecting an ERA of 3.05 across 155 innings. They also project he’ll strike out 177, which is comparable to his 190 in 2022 and 211 in 2021.
Freddy Peralta
2022 wasn’t an ideal year for Freddy Peralta, especially after a breakout 2021 year. In 2022, Peralta dealt with a handful of injuries and finished the year with a 4-4 record, ERA of 3.58 and 86 strikeouts over 78.0 innings of work.
He’s projected to go 7-5 with an ERA of 3.33 and 126 strikeouts in 108 innings. Hopefully a spark comes back in Freddy Peralta and the Brewers are able to see 2021 Peralta again.
Eric Lauer
Lauer really broke out in 2022 after having a solid 2021 season. He finished with an 11-7 record, ERA of 3.69, and struck out 157 in 158.2 innings of work over 29 starts. An ERA of 6.83 in June really inflated his numbers, but his first two months of the season with an ERA of 1.93 in April and 2.96 in May really showed the power that Lauer would bring for Milwaukee.
While Spring Training hasn’t been ideal for him, Baseball Reference has him going 9-7 this season with an ERA of 3.68, striking out 146 over 149.0 innings of work.
Wade Miley
Many Brewers fans remember Wade Miley being a strong arm in the Brewers’ 2018 success (2.57 ERA), and over the last four seasons with the Reds, Cubs, and Astros, Miley has been a toss-up. He threw a no-hitter with the Reds back in 2021 and then finished last season with the Chicago Cubs with an ERA of 3.16. Milwaukee brought him back on a one-year deal in the offseason. With Aaron Ashby out for the time being, the fifth spot was open for Miley to step in and be the Brewers’ fifth starter.
He’s made three appearances pitching in Spring Training, posting an ERA of 4.22 and has struck out eight. In 2023, he’s projected to have a 6-5 record, an ERA of 3.68 in 93 innings of work.
Other Options
There are other arms available for Milwaukee that could potentially see a starting pitching spot at some point in the season. The Brewers have already optioned both Ethan Small and Janson Junk to AAA Nashville, but it’s likely that we’ll see either one of them or both at some point making a major league appearance. Jason Alexander is also an option, but will be out until May or June after he was moved to the 60-day injured list. Bryse Wilson is also available and he’s proven to have a strong spring so far with the Brewers, not allowing a run over 6 2/3 innings.
Once Aaron Ashby returns from injury, he’ll most likely be in the bullpen for a little bit until he’s ready to go 100% and then we’ll probably see him in the starting rotation. Adrian Houser is also an option for starting, but it’s already been said that he’ll start the season making appearances out of the bullpen.
For More in the Series..
Check out the other articles included in this series:
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