I am sure you have heard by now, but Brian Gutekunst loves trading up in the first round. In three of four drafts as the Packers General Manager Gutekunst has traded up into the first round:
- Packers 2018 Draft: Brian Gutekunst initially traded back in the first round, only to trade up to take Jaire Alexander. In round number 3 he traded up again to take Oren Burks.
- Packers 2019 Draft: Brian Gutekunst traded up to take Darnell Savage with the 21st pick in the 2019 NFL draft.
- Packers 2020 Draft: As we all know, Brian Gutekunst traded up in the first round to take Joran Love with the 26th pick.
With Green Bay having more draft capital in the first three rounds than any draft in recent memory, Gutekunst could strike again.
What would it cost to trade up?
There have been many grading scales over the years regarding valuing draft picks. One however, has stood the test of time. Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart that was established in the 1990s. According to his scale Green Bay is sitting at 780 points for their 22nd overall pick and 660 for their 28th overall pick. Those two picks packaged together (1,440 points) is worthy of approximately the 7th (1,500 points) or 8th (1,400 points) overall pick. Green Bay would never trade both their first round picks without receiving at least one player in return as part of the deal.
The 10th overall pick is worth 1300 points. If Green Bay were to give up their 22nd (780 points) overall pick to move up to 10th (or higher) they would likely need to package their 59th overall pick (second round – 310 points) and possibly their 92nd overall pick (third round – 132 points). This would be a total of 1,222 points. The complete trade would look something like this:
Packers receive:
- 2022 Draft pick #9, #10, or #11
Other team receives:
- 2022 Draft pick: #22 (first round), #59 (second round), #92 (third round)
This would leave Green Bay with only three picks in the top 60, but a significant jump in the first round to go get their guy.
If Green Bay wanted to keep their 22nd overall pick and give up their 28th, it would look similar, however possibly one or two more mid round picks.
Previous Trade example in the past:
In 2010:
Baltimore Ravens received:
- Picks No. 43, 70, 114 in the 2010 draft
Denver Broncos received:
- Pick No. 25 in the 2010 draft
In 2011:
Cleveland Browns received:
- Picks No. 26, 59, 124 in the 2011 draft
- Picks No. 22, 118 in the 2012 draft
Atlanta Falcons received:
- Pick No. 6 in the 2011 draft
In 2016:
Tennessee Titans received:
- Picks No. 15, 43, 45, 76 in the 2016 draft
- Picks No. 5, 100 in the 2017 draft
Los Angeles Rams received:
- Picks No. 1, 113 in the 2017 draft
In 2017:
San Francisco 49ers received:
- Picks No. 3, 67, 111 in the 2017 draft
- Pick No. 70 in the 2018 draft
Atlanta Falcons received:
- Pick No. 6 in the 2017 draft
In 2018:
Philadelphia Eagles received:
- Picks No. 52, 125 in the 2018 draft
- Second-rounder in the 2019 draft
Baltimore Ravens received:
- Picks No. 32, 132 in the 2019 draft
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